The Next Next President

One thing that hasn't gotten a lot of discussion in the media is the bearing that Biden's selection will have on the Democratic Primary contest in 2016, should Sen. Obama win two terms in office. It is widely accepted that at age 73, Biden would choose not to seek the Democratic nomination eight years from now, leading to a situation where there is no heir apparent in the party.

Critics have charged that this would lead to another bloodbath, a competitive primary challenge where a couple top-tier contenders and four or five second-level entrants battle each other for the crown. There is a lot of conventional wisdom out there that indicates such an outcome would be terrible, a replay of 1968 or 2008, where internecine divisions are opened up and violent exchanges in March and April leave open wounds in September and October.

But the other side of the coin is that by selecting Biden, Obama has left the primary voters in charge of selecting a new leader in eight years. Joe Biden is a good guy, but there's no real reason to believe that the issue-set and temperament he brings to the table, valuable in 2008, will be equally fresh almost a decade down the road. Nominating Evan Bayh would have given him a leg up in 2016, when he'd only be sixty or so. But if the issue of the day in 2016 happens to be the environment, or the Republicans nominate a charismatic talker, then that advantage for the candidate would really be a disadvantage to the party.

By putting the selection of the next next-President into the hands of voters, where it belongs, Obama made the decision to wait until the electoral landscape was more clearly defined to select an heir. This is a decision that I believe will be beneficial in the long run, even if it results in a few bumps and scrapes the next time around.