The message discipline of the Obama juggernaut is legendary in the political world. This is a campaign that started and ended with the same slogan (Change We Can Believe In) and the same campaign rallying cry (Yes, We Can), in an environment where their competitors were constantly re-tooling to try and adjust to conditions on the ground. Over the course of the campaign, McCain had so many slogans (Country First; Reform. Prosperity. Peace; A Cause Greater than Self; A Leader You Can Believe In) that it became difficult in the end to tell exactly what he was selling. Whether you think Obama was a phony or not, you knew what he claimed to stand for.
Beyond his grip on the campaign narrative on a news cycle by news cycle basis, the Obama campaign was notoriously effective at preventing leaks. There was little drama in the inner circle, and the loyalty top aides displayed to their leader was remarkable. The Biden unveiling was not picked up by any news organization until Obama released it himself, and there is even some belief that Biden didn't know until late in the evening the night he was named.
Which is why the dramatic leak-fest that was associated with the selection of Congressman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) to be the next White House Chief of Staff was so unexpected. First there was the Halloween leak that Emanuel was being considered; then, after the election, the leak that he had been asked. Unsure whether to accept, it leaked that Emanuel was "agonizing" over the decision. Finally, just hours before it was announced that he accepted, word leaked that he had. What happened? How did the Obama ship suddenly become the freaking Titanic?
Did I mention previously that Emanuel was a staffer in the Clinton White House?
This is just getting started. Let's hope he doesn't invite the whole circus to town.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
The Exit Polls: Shifting Electorate?
Now that it's been a few days, some of the larger news organizations are releasing the detailed cross-tabs for their exit polling operations, giving us a clearer idea of the makeup of the coalition that made the son of a Kenyan goatherd leader of the free world. Not surprisingly, the differences between the 2004 and 2008 numbers are dramatic, signalling a shift that could be construed as either reactive or tectonic.
Whereas John Kerry lost men and won women by a meager three points, Obama eked out a 1% margin among men and more than quadrupled Kerry's margin with women. Kerry lost voters 30 and older, while Obama won voters aged 18-59, only narrowly losing those sixty and older. Obama's performance with whites matched that of Bill Clinton's reelection run in 1996, which itself was the highest showing by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The only demographic where the Democrats lost ground from 2004 was in small towns, where Obama underperformed Kerry by barely 4%.
Some of the gains were dramatic. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in cities both big and small by ten points, increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, and led an astounding (if not quite shocking) 2-1 blowout among first time voters, besting Kerry to the tune of 16 points. If it turns out that these gains were largely the result of a referendum on Bush and the GOP in general, then it is entirely possible that Obama will be in for a real fight for reelection. But if even some of these gains are in any way durable, the GOP is staring down the long barrel of a very loaded gun.
Whereas John Kerry lost men and won women by a meager three points, Obama eked out a 1% margin among men and more than quadrupled Kerry's margin with women. Kerry lost voters 30 and older, while Obama won voters aged 18-59, only narrowly losing those sixty and older. Obama's performance with whites matched that of Bill Clinton's reelection run in 1996, which itself was the highest showing by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The only demographic where the Democrats lost ground from 2004 was in small towns, where Obama underperformed Kerry by barely 4%.
Some of the gains were dramatic. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in cities both big and small by ten points, increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, and led an astounding (if not quite shocking) 2-1 blowout among first time voters, besting Kerry to the tune of 16 points. If it turns out that these gains were largely the result of a referendum on Bush and the GOP in general, then it is entirely possible that Obama will be in for a real fight for reelection. But if even some of these gains are in any way durable, the GOP is staring down the long barrel of a very loaded gun.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Something Awry In Anchorage
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com is reporting of some extremely unusual voter trends in Alaska, trends that might shed some light on the surprise upset of Democrats Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz. It seems that Alaska turnout was actually down, in stark contrast to the rest of the country, to the tune of better than fourteen percent.
That's a dramatic decrease in statewide voter participation, in a year with an extremely close Senate race as well as the appearance of the highly popular governor as a candidate for the Vice-Presidency. Just as confusing is the fact that these voters consistently told pollsters that they intended to swing the other way. So, is this then some sort of "Stevens Effect," where voters were unwilling to tell pollsters that they had no compunction voting to reelect a convicted felon?
That doesn't appear likely. The problem is that it wasn't just the Stevens race that defied gravity. It seems that the polling was also dramatically wrong about the race for the state's at-large congressional district. And it understated McCain's victory margin almost two-fold. Indeed, in all the national contests, Alaska Republicans picked up roughly 12-14 points more than their polling averages indicated should receive on election day, at the same time that tens of thousands of usually good voters stayed at home, leading to the lowest turnout for a presidential election in Alaskan history.
Silver suspects that this could be a result of Democrats deflated by Obama's certain defeat in the state, yet complacent about the leads that Berkowitz and Begich had racked up. I'm not so sure. More to follow.
That's a dramatic decrease in statewide voter participation, in a year with an extremely close Senate race as well as the appearance of the highly popular governor as a candidate for the Vice-Presidency. Just as confusing is the fact that these voters consistently told pollsters that they intended to swing the other way. So, is this then some sort of "Stevens Effect," where voters were unwilling to tell pollsters that they had no compunction voting to reelect a convicted felon?
That doesn't appear likely. The problem is that it wasn't just the Stevens race that defied gravity. It seems that the polling was also dramatically wrong about the race for the state's at-large congressional district. And it understated McCain's victory margin almost two-fold. Indeed, in all the national contests, Alaska Republicans picked up roughly 12-14 points more than their polling averages indicated should receive on election day, at the same time that tens of thousands of usually good voters stayed at home, leading to the lowest turnout for a presidential election in Alaskan history.
Silver suspects that this could be a result of Democrats deflated by Obama's certain defeat in the state, yet complacent about the leads that Berkowitz and Begich had racked up. I'm not so sure. More to follow.
Night of the Long Knives
With the overwhelming rejection the GOP and McCain saw at the polls Tuesday, it was little surprise today that blood could be seen seeping out beneath the closed doors of the Republican Caucus. House Minority Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) announced that he would not seek another go at the position, enabling his deputy, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) to toss his hat into the ring. The electoral defeat was Blunt's second in as many years and may well reflect the expiration date on his very Rovian brand of intransigence
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) moved quickly this morning to deflect a frontal assault, releasing a letter making clear his intention to retain the post in the eleventy-first Congress. This seems to have staunched the bleeding for the moment, but the Republican base is piping hot and looking for someone (other than Palin) to blame.
In other news of vengeance, today may indeed be the day when the rank duplicity of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) finally, finally comes home to roost. After being summoned this afternoon to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) office, Lieberman left looking grim, telling reporters he was going home to think "about what Senator Reid and I discussed, and what my options are at this point."
Word on the street is that Reid offered the chair of a Senate Sub-Committee, so long as Lieberman relinquish his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. Lieberman, in hot water over his vocal support of John McCain's Presidential Campaign, allegedly refused the offer he wasn't supposed to refuse, threatening to bolt from the Senate Democratic Caucus unless he retained his chairmanship.
For their part, the Republican Caucus has made it known that they would welcome Lieberman with open arms, and with three senate races still up in the air, it's uncertain whether Reid will hold firm or back down. But if history is any indicator, Lieberman has little to worry about.
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) moved quickly this morning to deflect a frontal assault, releasing a letter making clear his intention to retain the post in the eleventy-first Congress. This seems to have staunched the bleeding for the moment, but the Republican base is piping hot and looking for someone (other than Palin) to blame.
In other news of vengeance, today may indeed be the day when the rank duplicity of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) finally, finally comes home to roost. After being summoned this afternoon to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) office, Lieberman left looking grim, telling reporters he was going home to think "about what Senator Reid and I discussed, and what my options are at this point."
Word on the street is that Reid offered the chair of a Senate Sub-Committee, so long as Lieberman relinquish his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. Lieberman, in hot water over his vocal support of John McCain's Presidential Campaign, allegedly refused the offer he wasn't supposed to refuse, threatening to bolt from the Senate Democratic Caucus unless he retained his chairmanship.
For their part, the Republican Caucus has made it known that they would welcome Lieberman with open arms, and with three senate races still up in the air, it's uncertain whether Reid will hold firm or back down. But if history is any indicator, Lieberman has little to worry about.
Final(ish) Score: 364-174
North Carolina has just announced that the unofficial winner of its 15 electoral votes is President-Elect Obama. He has apparently emerged with a slim but firm 13,000 vote lead, and all that remains for the official count is to finish tallying the provisional ballots, a task which is expected only to increase his lead.
This was the last outstanding state, and with this announcement the final Electoral College numbers are Obama - 364 to McCain - 174, the largest landslide by a Democrat in a two-man race since 1964. But Novak says it's still not a mandate. Go figure.
This was the last outstanding state, and with this announcement the final Electoral College numbers are Obama - 364 to McCain - 174, the largest landslide by a Democrat in a two-man race since 1964. But Novak says it's still not a mandate. Go figure.
State of the Senate: Part II - Minnesota
It's now been roughly 36 hours since polls closed in Minnesota, and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is still in the process of fending off a challenge from comedian and talk-show host Al Franken. The final (unofficial) vote tally had Coleman up by an minuscule 467 votes out of a total of more than 2.4 million cast.
This has triggered an automatic statewide recount that is expected to take several days. If Franken wins, the Democrats pick up another seat in their now quixotic attempt to reach 60. If he loses, Coleman goes back to the Senate where he is nearly certain to face an ethics probe (sound at all familiar?) into his receipt of a gift of some $75,000 that failed to make its way onto his Financial Disclosure Forms.
Since his violation is specifically tied to Senate ethics rules, and since his high-profile as a U.S. Senator helps fuel the story, there have been suggestions from certain quarters that Coleman's best legal strategy is to lose the recount and relinquish his seat. His future is now out of his hands, to be determined by optical scanning machines. This race is still a tossup.
This has triggered an automatic statewide recount that is expected to take several days. If Franken wins, the Democrats pick up another seat in their now quixotic attempt to reach 60. If he loses, Coleman goes back to the Senate where he is nearly certain to face an ethics probe (sound at all familiar?) into his receipt of a gift of some $75,000 that failed to make its way onto his Financial Disclosure Forms.
Since his violation is specifically tied to Senate ethics rules, and since his high-profile as a U.S. Senator helps fuel the story, there have been suggestions from certain quarters that Coleman's best legal strategy is to lose the recount and relinquish his seat. His future is now out of his hands, to be determined by optical scanning machines. This race is still a tossup.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
"Wasilla Hillbillies Looting Neiman Marcus"
In their "Special Election Project," Newsweek reports the following:
NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin’s shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain’s top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus.Wow. Guess the only question remaining now is "how deep does the rabbit hole go?"
According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement.
One aide estimated that she spent “tens of thousands” more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as “Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast,” and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.
OR Senate: Merkely Knocks Off Smith
Before I could get to Part II, The Oregonian had to go and call the Oregon Senate race for Democrat Jeff Merkely. Projected results from heavily Democratic Multnomah County seem to indicate that Sen. Gordon Smith will be defeated in his bid for a third term. While Smith is as of yet not conceding, this one looks all but wrapped up. Smith's unseating makes six Senate pickups for the Democrats this cycle, and puts them just three seats away from the likely unattainable filibuster-proof majority.
Taking the Initiative
While the nation was squarely focused last night on Obama's historic victory, several important ballot initiatives were also decided, largely with similar results nationwide. In summary, it was a bad night for fetuses and the GLBT community, and a good night for pot-heads and the terminally ill.
California Prop. 4, which would have required parental notification and a 48 hour waiting period before a minor could obtain an abortion, was defeated in a close vote. South Dakota Initiative 11, which would have eliminated abortion except in the case of danger to a woman's life or health, or in the case of rape or incest, was defeated by a similar margin to a similar initiative two years ago. Colorado voters refused to define life as beginning at the moment of conception, and Michigan's electorate wrote stem cell research into the state constitution.
It was, however, a highly disappointing night for the Gay and Lesbian community. Gay marriage bans passed in Arizona, Florida, and California (where the LDS-funded Prop. 8 was a HUGE controversy). At the same time that they helped usher in one of their own to the White House, blacks in California voted more than two to one to write discrimination against homosexuals into the state constitution.
President-elect Obama's virtually silent opposition didn't seem to sway them much, and in fact there's even talk today that the increase in black turnout precipitated by his candidacy is what pushed the Proposition through. Arkansas also banned adoption by unmarried couples, to be read as gay couples. For all the breathless headlines, tolerance and equality under the law had only a so-so night.
Marijuana advocates, however, were not disappointed by the night's results. The compassionate use Proposition 1 in Michigan was approved by a better than 3:2 margin, and 7 in 10 Massachussettes voters elected to decriminalize possession of less than one ounce of Marijuana, levying a $100 civil fine per offense. While such advances made little headway during the Bush years, when the "states rights" President routinely ordered raids on legally sanctioned dispensaries in states with Compassionate Use laws, it is much less clear that a President Obama would stand in the way of such measures. Finally, Washington became the second state after Oregon to legislate the right to terminate one's life in the face of terrible illness, by a fairly sizable margin.
So, it appears the culture wars, while not as central to the American political dialogue as they once were, are indeed alive and well, as well as fundamentally unchanged. The nation is still largely pro-choice and still somewhat anti-gay, but can get together around around a joint in their buddy's basement. God Bless America.
California Prop. 4, which would have required parental notification and a 48 hour waiting period before a minor could obtain an abortion, was defeated in a close vote. South Dakota Initiative 11, which would have eliminated abortion except in the case of danger to a woman's life or health, or in the case of rape or incest, was defeated by a similar margin to a similar initiative two years ago. Colorado voters refused to define life as beginning at the moment of conception, and Michigan's electorate wrote stem cell research into the state constitution.
It was, however, a highly disappointing night for the Gay and Lesbian community. Gay marriage bans passed in Arizona, Florida, and California (where the LDS-funded Prop. 8 was a HUGE controversy). At the same time that they helped usher in one of their own to the White House, blacks in California voted more than two to one to write discrimination against homosexuals into the state constitution.
President-elect Obama's virtually silent opposition didn't seem to sway them much, and in fact there's even talk today that the increase in black turnout precipitated by his candidacy is what pushed the Proposition through. Arkansas also banned adoption by unmarried couples, to be read as gay couples. For all the breathless headlines, tolerance and equality under the law had only a so-so night.
Marijuana advocates, however, were not disappointed by the night's results. The compassionate use Proposition 1 in Michigan was approved by a better than 3:2 margin, and 7 in 10 Massachussettes voters elected to decriminalize possession of less than one ounce of Marijuana, levying a $100 civil fine per offense. While such advances made little headway during the Bush years, when the "states rights" President routinely ordered raids on legally sanctioned dispensaries in states with Compassionate Use laws, it is much less clear that a President Obama would stand in the way of such measures. Finally, Washington became the second state after Oregon to legislate the right to terminate one's life in the face of terrible illness, by a fairly sizable margin.
So, it appears the culture wars, while not as central to the American political dialogue as they once were, are indeed alive and well, as well as fundamentally unchanged. The nation is still largely pro-choice and still somewhat anti-gay, but can get together around around a joint in their buddy's basement. God Bless America.
State of the Senate: Part I
Here is the current state of the Democratic quest to 60 seats in the Senate, Part I:
Alaska - The race between convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) appears to be over, and it appears that the pro-crime vote was the key in Sen. Stevens reelection victory. The surge in crime-friendly voters also helped soon-to-be-indicted Rep. Don Young (R-AK) overcome challenger Ethan Berkowitz in the contest for the state's only congressional seat.
What's the upshot? Stevens faces certain censure and expulsion from the Senate, which will result in the appointment of a temporary replacement by Gov. Sarah Palin (who rumor has it is eyeing herself for the position). A special election will be called no later than 90 days after Sen. Stevens leaves office, and the appointee will likely face defeated challenger Begich. It should be noted that the Senate may choose not to pursue expulsion until Stevens has exhausted his appeals, a process that could take years. But his presence is contagion in an already toxic environment, and the pressure from members of his own party to step down is liable to be intense.
Between Palin's fame and popularity, backlash against the Obama victory, and the naturally conservative composition of the Alaska electorate, she should walk away with the hypothetical contest. In a political environment where a felon can be reelected just days after his conviction, this one has to marked as lean Republican.
Georgia - After what looked like a slim reelection victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) evaporated overnight, the incumbent is left this evening with a total of 1,841,454 votes, amounting to 49.83% of the popular vote. If this margin holds, it will trigger a run-off election between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. In an environment where the Democratic base is feeling enthusiastic and empowered, and where thousands of Democratic campaign operatives are restless and suddenly unemployed, Chambliss may be in for the fight of his life.
The run-off, hypothetically scheduled for December 2, may be the final battleground of Decision '08. Nate Silver has already reported on the impending influx of operatives into the Peach State, and with emotions and excitement at fever pitch, this may prove to be a most lucrative outlet. Tough electoral math combined with relentless determination makes this race a true toss-up.
Next up: Minnesota and Oregon...
Alaska - The race between convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) appears to be over, and it appears that the pro-crime vote was the key in Sen. Stevens reelection victory. The surge in crime-friendly voters also helped soon-to-be-indicted Rep. Don Young (R-AK) overcome challenger Ethan Berkowitz in the contest for the state's only congressional seat.
What's the upshot? Stevens faces certain censure and expulsion from the Senate, which will result in the appointment of a temporary replacement by Gov. Sarah Palin (who rumor has it is eyeing herself for the position). A special election will be called no later than 90 days after Sen. Stevens leaves office, and the appointee will likely face defeated challenger Begich. It should be noted that the Senate may choose not to pursue expulsion until Stevens has exhausted his appeals, a process that could take years. But his presence is contagion in an already toxic environment, and the pressure from members of his own party to step down is liable to be intense.
Between Palin's fame and popularity, backlash against the Obama victory, and the naturally conservative composition of the Alaska electorate, she should walk away with the hypothetical contest. In a political environment where a felon can be reelected just days after his conviction, this one has to marked as lean Republican.
Georgia - After what looked like a slim reelection victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) evaporated overnight, the incumbent is left this evening with a total of 1,841,454 votes, amounting to 49.83% of the popular vote. If this margin holds, it will trigger a run-off election between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. In an environment where the Democratic base is feeling enthusiastic and empowered, and where thousands of Democratic campaign operatives are restless and suddenly unemployed, Chambliss may be in for the fight of his life.
The run-off, hypothetically scheduled for December 2, may be the final battleground of Decision '08. Nate Silver has already reported on the impending influx of operatives into the Peach State, and with emotions and excitement at fever pitch, this may prove to be a most lucrative outlet. Tough electoral math combined with relentless determination makes this race a true toss-up.
Next up: Minnesota and Oregon...
Pitbull: Hold the Lipstick
While it's not news yet (a botched denial out of his office is likely the first in a series of transition screw-ups), Congressman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) appears to have accepted President-Elect Obama's offer to become his White House Chief of Staff. The young Illinois legislator has a reputation as a ruthless enforcer, and would likely end up playing the bad cop to President Obama's post-partisan approach. The congressman was the model for West Wing Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Lyman, and if the real man bears any resemblance to the likeness he inspired, we could be in for a rough-and-tumble few years.
Emanuel's selection is a reflex of the pragmatic Obama, much like his rejection of public funds during the campaign, and cuts somewhat against the grain of his bipartisan rhetoric. To choose a full-contact operative like Emanuel to be the primary manager of his administration is maybe a little more aggressive than I would have liked, and may signal that the progenitor of the most cohesive electoral juggernaut in American history isn't done playing hardball.
There are hints of softer, more hope-driven picks coming down the road: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been floated as a potential Environmental Protection Agency head, and there's even the somewhat strange sounding idea of having Gen. Colin Powell serve as Secretary of Education.
While shuffling a member of the Bush Administration from one cabinet post to another hardly seems to qualify as "change we can believe in," the appearance of bipartisanship and the widespread popularity of the former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs may be enough to insulate Obama from charges of hypocrisy. Time will tell; less than twenty-four hours after the race was called, the electricity in the air has yet to discharge, and much of what we hear today is probably rumor and apocrypha, which is of course to bloggers what nouns and verbs are to writers. Good to be back.
Emanuel's selection is a reflex of the pragmatic Obama, much like his rejection of public funds during the campaign, and cuts somewhat against the grain of his bipartisan rhetoric. To choose a full-contact operative like Emanuel to be the primary manager of his administration is maybe a little more aggressive than I would have liked, and may signal that the progenitor of the most cohesive electoral juggernaut in American history isn't done playing hardball.
There are hints of softer, more hope-driven picks coming down the road: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been floated as a potential Environmental Protection Agency head, and there's even the somewhat strange sounding idea of having Gen. Colin Powell serve as Secretary of Education.
While shuffling a member of the Bush Administration from one cabinet post to another hardly seems to qualify as "change we can believe in," the appearance of bipartisanship and the widespread popularity of the former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs may be enough to insulate Obama from charges of hypocrisy. Time will tell; less than twenty-four hours after the race was called, the electricity in the air has yet to discharge, and much of what we hear today is probably rumor and apocrypha, which is of course to bloggers what nouns and verbs are to writers. Good to be back.
The Phoenix
Now that the election chaos is officially over, I intend to start the blog machine back up. I didn't initially quit because the prospect of covering polling averages day after day was tiresome, but I admit a certain pleasure having avoided it. I originally stopped when I began pursuing a paid position with the Obama campaign, partially out of a sense of journalistic neutrality (as though I ever possessed that) and partly because that process required a substantial portion of my attention.
I remained inactive for a variety of reasons, none of which I am going to go into detail about. It's not that interesting, and I want to get back to the political world. I apologize to any readers who were left in the jarring silence, and I apologize for not explaining my absence over the last several months. If many of you are hesitant to trust the permanence of this site, I hardly blame you.
I really like to think of this blog as more starting anew than it is a continuation of the old; a new blog for a new administration and perhaps a new era. I have high hopes for the next few years, and for the first time since I took an interest in politics, I think I am going to be happy to write about it. See you on the field.
I remained inactive for a variety of reasons, none of which I am going to go into detail about. It's not that interesting, and I want to get back to the political world. I apologize to any readers who were left in the jarring silence, and I apologize for not explaining my absence over the last several months. If many of you are hesitant to trust the permanence of this site, I hardly blame you.
I really like to think of this blog as more starting anew than it is a continuation of the old; a new blog for a new administration and perhaps a new era. I have high hopes for the next few years, and for the first time since I took an interest in politics, I think I am going to be happy to write about it. See you on the field.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Yes, Another Poll
I know, I know, but this one is process related as well. It's yet another disturbing result, again from Rasmussen. Their newest survey from New Mexico (September 8, 700 LV) shows McCain ahead in a state Obama is pretty much counting on:
McCain (R) 49 (+5)
Obama (D) 47 (-3)
As most of the surveys this year show Obama with a lead, this one result may simply be an outlier. The large Hispanic population in New Mexico should give Obama the advantage in this electoral climate, so in any case this might be a place to dump the cash he should be pulling out of North Carolina and Montana. But what do I know?
McCain (R) 49 (+5)
Obama (D) 47 (-3)
As most of the surveys this year show Obama with a lead, this one result may simply be an outlier. The large Hispanic population in New Mexico should give Obama the advantage in this electoral climate, so in any case this might be a place to dump the cash he should be pulling out of North Carolina and Montana. But what do I know?
The Lipstick Smear
As anyone who follows the day-to-day news cycle is no doubt aware, nearly all of the 54th to last day of the 2008 campaign was spent dissecting the sexist intent an aphorism that Obama used in exactly the same manner that McCain did last year. It was clear in, in context, that Obama was referring to either John McCain or John McCain's policies. He was not talking about Gov. Palin at this point in his remarks. In fact, it's several more minutes into the speech before he mentions or even alludes to her.
This did not stop the McCain campaign from putting out another web ad running the video of the comment over a caption that read "Barack Obama On: Sarah Palin." I have neglected to link to this video, not because it is trash, which it is, but because YouTube has pulled it due to complaints from CBS about copyrighted material that is included. It seems they did not give the McCain folks permission to take Katie Couric's on-air editorial about Hillary Clinton and sexism WILDLY out of context. Funny how that riles people up.
There has indeed been some press backlash regarding this wholly created dustup, but even a negative press reaction benefits McCain, in that it's just another day we're not talking about issues and policies. You can be certain that McCain's strategist, Steve Schmidt, has a "message calendar" covering his wall, listing in order no less than thirty ways to create days like today in the next two months. We've got gay marriage and William Ayers, Reverend Wright and Kindergarten sex. Maybe there's even a brain-dead woman in Poughkeepsie that needs the American people to save her.
The motive behind this strategy is clear. In a generic election year, between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat, the Republican always wins. It is, for the time being, the nature of the American electorate. But after eight years of Republican rule, with a collapsing economy, a failing war, and a climate run amok, the odds should be tilted so far toward any Democrat that it's not even a contest.
The only way McCain could win is if he ran in a different year, and that's exactly what Schmidt is trying to do. If he can reignite the culture war, if he can make Americans forget for sixty days, hell, for ONE DAY, what year this is, McCain will be the next president.
What we need is for the news media to refuse to cover these non-stories. We need them to ask why they haven't had the opportunity to elicit from Palin any answers at all, why if she's so prepared to be President tomorrow, she's so unprepared to be a candidate for Vice-President today. They need to ask McCain if he is against teaching children the difference between good touch and bad touch, or if he really believes that Barack Obama is such a sick, perverted man that he relishes the idea of going through the details of coitus with five-year olds.
If the media allows the Republican Party to determine what this election is about, if they play the next seven weeks like they played the last seven days, Obama is going to lose and it's that simple. That is a deeply troubling reality.
This did not stop the McCain campaign from putting out another web ad running the video of the comment over a caption that read "Barack Obama On: Sarah Palin." I have neglected to link to this video, not because it is trash, which it is, but because YouTube has pulled it due to complaints from CBS about copyrighted material that is included. It seems they did not give the McCain folks permission to take Katie Couric's on-air editorial about Hillary Clinton and sexism WILDLY out of context. Funny how that riles people up.
There has indeed been some press backlash regarding this wholly created dustup, but even a negative press reaction benefits McCain, in that it's just another day we're not talking about issues and policies. You can be certain that McCain's strategist, Steve Schmidt, has a "message calendar" covering his wall, listing in order no less than thirty ways to create days like today in the next two months. We've got gay marriage and William Ayers, Reverend Wright and Kindergarten sex. Maybe there's even a brain-dead woman in Poughkeepsie that needs the American people to save her.
The motive behind this strategy is clear. In a generic election year, between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat, the Republican always wins. It is, for the time being, the nature of the American electorate. But after eight years of Republican rule, with a collapsing economy, a failing war, and a climate run amok, the odds should be tilted so far toward any Democrat that it's not even a contest.
The only way McCain could win is if he ran in a different year, and that's exactly what Schmidt is trying to do. If he can reignite the culture war, if he can make Americans forget for sixty days, hell, for ONE DAY, what year this is, McCain will be the next president.
What we need is for the news media to refuse to cover these non-stories. We need them to ask why they haven't had the opportunity to elicit from Palin any answers at all, why if she's so prepared to be President tomorrow, she's so unprepared to be a candidate for Vice-President today. They need to ask McCain if he is against teaching children the difference between good touch and bad touch, or if he really believes that Barack Obama is such a sick, perverted man that he relishes the idea of going through the details of coitus with five-year olds.
If the media allows the Republican Party to determine what this election is about, if they play the next seven weeks like they played the last seven days, Obama is going to lose and it's that simple. That is a deeply troubling reality.
Call This A Boondoggle
Congratulations are in order for the fine men and women at CERN. At 4:27 a.m., Eastern time, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was successfully activated and a proton beam made the entire 17 mile circuit unhindered. The real stuff won't come for another month or more, as numerous tests of both the super-conducting torus and the massive particle detectors continue.
But for the time being, we can all get together and recognize the fact that in one of the few scientific projects joined by all the world, mankind has yet again achieved a victory and opened a door to our own future. Kudos, particle-physics dorks; you have made this political junkie proud.
But for the time being, we can all get together and recognize the fact that in one of the few scientific projects joined by all the world, mankind has yet again achieved a victory and opened a door to our own future. Kudos, particle-physics dorks; you have made this political junkie proud.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
In Defense of Public Opinion Polling
There have been a whole slew of state polls out in the last few days, and while most of them show little that is surprising, there are a couple worth mentioning. First up are the latest SurveyUSA (September 6-8, 671 LV) numbers from North Carolina:
McCain (R) 58 (+9)
Obama (D) 38 (-7)
Next we have the most recent Rasmussen Report (September 8, 700 LV) from Montana:
McCain (R) 53 (+6)
Obama (D) 42 (-5)
I tend to get a lot of crap (largely from my father) for closely following the polls, and in fact for buying into the whole horse-race aspect of elections in particular and politics in general. That's just fine; most days it embarrasses me too. I would now, however, like to take this opportunity to point out some of the possible uses of this much derided tool.
Ever since Obama's 2004 keynote address at the Democratic National Convention, he has cast himself as a post-partisan uniter, the kind of guy who can win in states both red and blue. He sold himself to the Democratic electorate as the kind of candidate who could put so many states in play that it wouldn't just be another replay of 2000 and 2004, where we're sitting around for way too long waiting for some obscure precinct in Jefferson County, Colorado to turn in their ballots.
The fifty-state strategy isn't a bad one in terms of either PR or long-term party vitality, and for awhile, it looked like it might be the ticket this year. But then came Sarah Palin and the reemergence of the Culture War, and if these latest numbers hold, places like Montana, North Carolina, and even Missouri may suddenly be out of reach. Obama has a lot of time and money invested in those states, in those communities, and it's going to be very hard to pack it in.
But pack it in he must. Obama still has the edge in financial resources, based upon his decision to forgo public financing. As a result, if he closes ranks around Ohio and Florida, while maintaining a large presence in Colorado and New Hampshire, he is still very likely to eke out a win. But failing to note the direction-change of the prevailing winds could result in disastrous consequences.
Polling doesn't necessarily tell a politician what to say; sometimes, it tells them how to play. It's instructive when it comes to maximizing both resources and advantages, while minimizing liabilities an handicaps. Bad candidates win because of good public internal polling and accurate analysis, and if politics is to be treated at times like a sport (a forgone conclusion in this country), this fact cannot be ignored.
So there.
McCain (R) 58 (+9)
Obama (D) 38 (-7)
Next we have the most recent Rasmussen Report (September 8, 700 LV) from Montana:
McCain (R) 53 (+6)
Obama (D) 42 (-5)
I tend to get a lot of crap (largely from my father) for closely following the polls, and in fact for buying into the whole horse-race aspect of elections in particular and politics in general. That's just fine; most days it embarrasses me too. I would now, however, like to take this opportunity to point out some of the possible uses of this much derided tool.
Ever since Obama's 2004 keynote address at the Democratic National Convention, he has cast himself as a post-partisan uniter, the kind of guy who can win in states both red and blue. He sold himself to the Democratic electorate as the kind of candidate who could put so many states in play that it wouldn't just be another replay of 2000 and 2004, where we're sitting around for way too long waiting for some obscure precinct in Jefferson County, Colorado to turn in their ballots.
The fifty-state strategy isn't a bad one in terms of either PR or long-term party vitality, and for awhile, it looked like it might be the ticket this year. But then came Sarah Palin and the reemergence of the Culture War, and if these latest numbers hold, places like Montana, North Carolina, and even Missouri may suddenly be out of reach. Obama has a lot of time and money invested in those states, in those communities, and it's going to be very hard to pack it in.
But pack it in he must. Obama still has the edge in financial resources, based upon his decision to forgo public financing. As a result, if he closes ranks around Ohio and Florida, while maintaining a large presence in Colorado and New Hampshire, he is still very likely to eke out a win. But failing to note the direction-change of the prevailing winds could result in disastrous consequences.
Polling doesn't necessarily tell a politician what to say; sometimes, it tells them how to play. It's instructive when it comes to maximizing both resources and advantages, while minimizing liabilities an handicaps. Bad candidates win because of good public internal polling and accurate analysis, and if politics is to be treated at times like a sport (a forgone conclusion in this country), this fact cannot be ignored.
So there.
Nice.
The McCain campaign, responding to an ad about McCain's voting record on education, released a television ad claiming that the only education reform Sen. Obama enacted during his time in the Illinois legislature was teaching, I quote, "comprehensive sex education to kindergartners." Watch if for yourself:
Maybe the sickest part of the whole exercise to me is the nursery music that's running in the background. This on the same day that McCain accuses the Obama camp of achieving a new low regarding funding for special education. Just amazing.
Maybe the sickest part of the whole exercise to me is the nursery music that's running in the background. This on the same day that McCain accuses the Obama camp of achieving a new low regarding funding for special education. Just amazing.
I'm Back!
The Washington Post reported this morning that Alaska Gov. and Veep nominee Sarah Palin billed the state for 312 nights that she spent at her Wasilla residence as part of a per diem arrangement that allows her to turn over expenses incurred when traveling on official business outside Juneau. The article also indicated that she had asked for and received reimbursement for over forty thousand dollars worth of airline tickets for her husband and children. While family members of Governors are permitted to bill the state for expenses relating to “official state business,” it's hard to imagine what official business seven-year old Piper Palin might have been engaged in that caused her to run up an $11,000 airline bill in the first nineteen months of her mother's governorship.
These revelations, coupled with the emerging fact that Palin was a strong supporter of the much-derided “Bridge to Nowhere” before it became a politically inexpedient albatross, are beginning raise doubts about the “maverick reformer” image McCain finally settled on for his fall message. While it was a well-known fact that Mayor Palin hired a lobbyist to obtain $27 million in earmarks during her tenure in that office, it is just now being revealed that she brought in close to a $750 million as governor. Her first year alone, she obtained $550 million in federal earmarks, or more than $800 per Alaskan, almost thirty times the national average. She even penned an editorial in one of Alaska's largest newspapers defending federal earmarks and describing their procurement as “incredibly important.”
There's nothing wrong with any of this. There's nothing illegal, lascivious, dangerous, immoral, or even particularly unique about the game she was running. But it's patently ludicrous to somehow paint her as the mortal enemy of pork and earmarks. Obama and his campaign have recently attacked her reformist assertions as misleading, and even deceitful, but the McCain campaign has issued this response over and over:
“Barack Obama's hysterical reaction to Sarah Palin's hard work as governor, combined with the vicious assault visited upon her family by his friends in the elite media, belie the contempt he has for ordinary Americans and the profound extent that he is willing to belittle America's working mothers.”
Ok, so I'm paraphrasing a bit. The point is that as long as the mainstream media are willing to cover the debate about Sarah Palin's record in the “he said – she responded” mold of tired journalism, Palin can keep re-issuing this statement and it will never lose any effectiveness. It won't gain any either, but it doesn't have to. It keeps us talking about the media and the “elite,” and prevents any honest, probing, or otherwise useful questions about her record in elective office.
This is another one of those cases that we desperately need the news media to help us, rather than hurt us, and just eight weeks from election day, it's hardly clear that this will happen.
UPDATE: Just saw this on HuffPo. He put it much better than I did:
So what is this house advantage the Republicans have? It's the press. There is no more fourth estate. Wait, hold on...I'm not going down some esoteric path with theories on the deregulation of the media and corporate bias and CNN versus Fox...I mean it: there is no more functioning press in this country. And without a real press the corporate and religious Republicans can lie all they want and get away with it. And that's the 51% advantage.It's a pretty passionate piece about how and why we're going to lose. Interesting reading if you're looking for nauseous sweating.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Nobody Brings It Like The Boss
If anyone has any ever had any question as to why some young Americans go to Jon Stewart for their news, check out this clip from last night's The Daily Show:
What a brilliant glimpse at big-league cynicism. Just hilarious.
What a brilliant glimpse at big-league cynicism. Just hilarious.
Monday, September 1, 2008
They're No Caroline Kennedy
The blogs have been burning over the last few hours with rumors that Gov. Sarah Palin's youngest son, Trig, is actually the progeny of Bristol Palin, her 17-year old daughter. These stories post photographs purporting to show a suspicious-looking bump on young Bristol's tummy. Amused by the concept, but doubting the veracity, I told anyone that asked that I thought there was a logical explanation. It turns out I was right.
Bristol Palin wasn't pregnant in March. She's pregnant now. This is further evidence that the McCain campaign spent zero time vetting Palin. She was an impulsive grope at the jilted Hillary vote, one that seems to be failing. She's had a few days of buzz and glory, but the spotlight is awful bright, and there may be more left to be seen.
Bristol Palin wasn't pregnant in March. She's pregnant now. This is further evidence that the McCain campaign spent zero time vetting Palin. She was an impulsive grope at the jilted Hillary vote, one that seems to be failing. She's had a few days of buzz and glory, but the spotlight is awful bright, and there may be more left to be seen.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Sunday Night Thought Dump
I've been out of the loop now for three full days, but was able to borrow hijack a friends laptop to craft sort of a "stream-of-consciousness thought dump" post regarding the many events I have not yet spoken of. So starting chronologically, here we go.
Bill Clinton's speech was energetic, positive, and brilliant. Though Hillary appeared at all times to be highly supportive of the candidate, her failure to specifically declare Obama ready to govern did not escape the notice of the media. In contrast, President Clinton's address the next night not only contained that very phrase, it had him repeating it several times loudly for emphasis. As expected, he strayed off the topic of defense a little, but by the end of his eloquent and powerful endorsement, he had tagged all the bases anyone could have asked for.
The roll-call vote was also expertly played, with the theatrics engineered by the Obama campaign capping a long, dramatic run-up in the press. Between the two Clinton speeches and the nomination by acclimation during the roll-call, the Democrats did a very good job of looking like they had achieved a consensus around Obama, when really the truth is that it was always more of a union against McCain.
Obama's speech the next night was well-written and well-received. My initial impression was that it wasn't his best oratory, but it was the first exposure for many of the nearly forty-million people who saw his speech live, and it was still leagues above what normally passes for rhetoric in politics. It was detailed, urgent, insightful, and inspired. All in all, the convention appears to have succeeded in all of its goals; the Democrats emerged strong, united, focused, and energized.
This energy was dispersed almost immediately by the shock selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as the Vice-Presidential nominee for the Republican Party. The media immediately declared it a brilliant pick, one that revitalized McCain and energized the party base. The McCain campaign ended up raising seven million dollars in one day off the announcement. So is this a game-changer?
I'm skeptical. While there is talk that this pick reinforces McCain's "maverick" credentials, I just don't see it. John McCain sides with Dubya 90% of the time, and the one-in-ten times he doesn't, Palin sides with the President. This is supposed to be the GOP tonic for the change bug? Sure, she brings in more of the Bush voters and Bush donors than McCain would alone, but that alone doesn't change the game. Those voters probably would have come home by November anyway.
The Republicans are wagering that women jilted by the Obama victory will be willing to turn their back on the Democratic Party and vote for a woman who opposes abortion, opposes birth control, opposes equal pay for equal work, opposes universal health care, and opposes the Equal Rights Amendment. The reason they suspect this will work, the reason the took on Palin, is that they really do believe women to be stupid enough to ignore all other considerations other than anatomy. I'm pretty sure they're wrong.
What Obama needs to do now is pony up the rest of the cash to retire Clinton's debt. The reason he needs to do this is that he needs Clinton out there smacking Palin around. Palin has no business at all calling herself a feminist, and it won't take much prodding from Clinton for most women to see that. While I don't expect Palin to draw all that many women in the fall, a constant and vocal stream of criticism from Clinton would likely take all the punch out of McCain's pick.
The real test (excepting November, of course) will be the polling over the course of the next week or so. It is pretty clear that the Tuesday tracking polls will show a blunted bounce from the Democratic Convention, but if McCain is up by 4 before the convention ends, it could be that the media narrative is taking hold. If Obama can maintain a lead throughout the first few days of the convention, it's likely the muted event will fail to put McCain into the lead. The summer is heading into the fall, and the campaign is just now cranking up to pace. UPS says I'll have my computer cable on Thursday, so look for an update then if not sooner. Ok.
Bill Clinton's speech was energetic, positive, and brilliant. Though Hillary appeared at all times to be highly supportive of the candidate, her failure to specifically declare Obama ready to govern did not escape the notice of the media. In contrast, President Clinton's address the next night not only contained that very phrase, it had him repeating it several times loudly for emphasis. As expected, he strayed off the topic of defense a little, but by the end of his eloquent and powerful endorsement, he had tagged all the bases anyone could have asked for.
The roll-call vote was also expertly played, with the theatrics engineered by the Obama campaign capping a long, dramatic run-up in the press. Between the two Clinton speeches and the nomination by acclimation during the roll-call, the Democrats did a very good job of looking like they had achieved a consensus around Obama, when really the truth is that it was always more of a union against McCain.
Obama's speech the next night was well-written and well-received. My initial impression was that it wasn't his best oratory, but it was the first exposure for many of the nearly forty-million people who saw his speech live, and it was still leagues above what normally passes for rhetoric in politics. It was detailed, urgent, insightful, and inspired. All in all, the convention appears to have succeeded in all of its goals; the Democrats emerged strong, united, focused, and energized.
This energy was dispersed almost immediately by the shock selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as the Vice-Presidential nominee for the Republican Party. The media immediately declared it a brilliant pick, one that revitalized McCain and energized the party base. The McCain campaign ended up raising seven million dollars in one day off the announcement. So is this a game-changer?
I'm skeptical. While there is talk that this pick reinforces McCain's "maverick" credentials, I just don't see it. John McCain sides with Dubya 90% of the time, and the one-in-ten times he doesn't, Palin sides with the President. This is supposed to be the GOP tonic for the change bug? Sure, she brings in more of the Bush voters and Bush donors than McCain would alone, but that alone doesn't change the game. Those voters probably would have come home by November anyway.
The Republicans are wagering that women jilted by the Obama victory will be willing to turn their back on the Democratic Party and vote for a woman who opposes abortion, opposes birth control, opposes equal pay for equal work, opposes universal health care, and opposes the Equal Rights Amendment. The reason they suspect this will work, the reason the took on Palin, is that they really do believe women to be stupid enough to ignore all other considerations other than anatomy. I'm pretty sure they're wrong.
What Obama needs to do now is pony up the rest of the cash to retire Clinton's debt. The reason he needs to do this is that he needs Clinton out there smacking Palin around. Palin has no business at all calling herself a feminist, and it won't take much prodding from Clinton for most women to see that. While I don't expect Palin to draw all that many women in the fall, a constant and vocal stream of criticism from Clinton would likely take all the punch out of McCain's pick.
The real test (excepting November, of course) will be the polling over the course of the next week or so. It is pretty clear that the Tuesday tracking polls will show a blunted bounce from the Democratic Convention, but if McCain is up by 4 before the convention ends, it could be that the media narrative is taking hold. If Obama can maintain a lead throughout the first few days of the convention, it's likely the muted event will fail to put McCain into the lead. The summer is heading into the fall, and the campaign is just now cranking up to pace. UPS says I'll have my computer cable on Thursday, so look for an update then if not sooner. Ok.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
We Apologize For The Inconvenience
This site is experiencing technical difficulties. Ok. That's not accurate, as you can probably tell. What I meant was this: the power supply from my notebook computer has bitten the dust, and as a result, the only Internet access I have is at work, and using that for personal (they don't exactly consider this blog professional) activities is expressly prohibited by office policy. I have already been reminded of this policy. Several times.
The upshot of this mess is that in the middle of the convention, I am going to be largely unable to add new posts at this time. I have a new power supply on order, and will return to the posting scene as soon as Best Buy ships it. I apologize for the inconvenience, and hope you'll keep checking back. I won't be gone for long. Count on it.
The upshot of this mess is that in the middle of the convention, I am going to be largely unable to add new posts at this time. I have a new power supply on order, and will return to the posting scene as soon as Best Buy ships it. I apologize for the inconvenience, and hope you'll keep checking back. I won't be gone for long. Count on it.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
She Can Bring It
She did it. That was the most that anyone could ask of her. If you didn't see it, watch Hillary's speech to the convention tonight. It is on par with anything Obama has ever delivered, and she delivered it in his honor convincingly. Her endorsement was powerful and eloquent, and any Clinton supporters not swayed by her argument must be considered unreachable and forgotten.
I never thought I'd be gushing about Hillary Clinton, but jeez, if she'da brought it like that in the primaries, she'd a owned him. Man, terrific.
I never thought I'd be gushing about Hillary Clinton, but jeez, if she'da brought it like that in the primaries, she'd a owned him. Man, terrific.
The Convention: Night One
Last night was the opening night of the Convention, and for what it was supposed to be, it seemed to come off quite well. There were no really big stars, no particularly relevant players (Nancy Pelosi spoke, but it isn't as if Obama has been cozying up to her; there's a reason she got stuck early on Monday evening). The main goal of the evening seemed to be making Michelle Obama seem less like a combination of Stokely Carmichael and the alien from Predator, and more like...well...Cindy McCain.
Forgetting for a moment that Michelle Obama has never come off as threatening or un-American other than in GOP attacks, she succeeded admirably in her goal. The introduction by her brother was authentic and heartfelt, and the mini-documentary narrated by her mother did a good job of expanding on the idea that both Barack and Michelle came from largely humble backgrounds, very much like Joe Biden and unlike either John or Cindy McCain.
Michelle's speech was expertly delivered; she's nearly as good at this as he is. She came off as warm, charming, confident, and intelligent, the very qualities a First Lady is expected to project. After the speech, when her kids joined her on-stage to say goodnight to their father via live feed from Missouri, the shades of Jack Kennedy were hard not to notice. The family looked undeniably happy, young, vibrant, and American. Last night will definitely make them harder to smear.
Sen. Ted Kennedy, following a tribute to his life and career, made a symbolic "passing the torch" type speech that seemed to me at least merely to hew to expectations. Nancy Pelosi, as always, was droning and uninspiring. I do not deny that she and Harry Reid are expert legislators (no wait, I do deny that), but they make for lousy party leaders. As she walked off stage, the only thing I could think about was how glad I am that she won't be the face of the Democratic Leadership for too much longer.
Of course, not everyone agrees with me. James Carville was unhappy that the Democrats used airtime to do anything other than ridicule McCain, while David Brooks was unhappy that there was any ridiculing done, believing instead that the Democrats should have spent the evening talking about what a "good man" John McCain is. William Kristol, shockingly, was unimpressed.
Tonight ought to be some fun. It's night one of the Clinton Spectacle, starring Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, fresh off his not-unifying media-bashing yesterday, and finally, the vanquished Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Obama people have tried to take the spotlight off her performance by scheduling Kathleen Sebelius, Deval Patrick, and Keynote Speaker Mark Warner the same evening. Yeah, I bet that works out well for them.
I guess we're about to find out.
Forgetting for a moment that Michelle Obama has never come off as threatening or un-American other than in GOP attacks, she succeeded admirably in her goal. The introduction by her brother was authentic and heartfelt, and the mini-documentary narrated by her mother did a good job of expanding on the idea that both Barack and Michelle came from largely humble backgrounds, very much like Joe Biden and unlike either John or Cindy McCain.
Michelle's speech was expertly delivered; she's nearly as good at this as he is. She came off as warm, charming, confident, and intelligent, the very qualities a First Lady is expected to project. After the speech, when her kids joined her on-stage to say goodnight to their father via live feed from Missouri, the shades of Jack Kennedy were hard not to notice. The family looked undeniably happy, young, vibrant, and American. Last night will definitely make them harder to smear.
Sen. Ted Kennedy, following a tribute to his life and career, made a symbolic "passing the torch" type speech that seemed to me at least merely to hew to expectations. Nancy Pelosi, as always, was droning and uninspiring. I do not deny that she and Harry Reid are expert legislators (no wait, I do deny that), but they make for lousy party leaders. As she walked off stage, the only thing I could think about was how glad I am that she won't be the face of the Democratic Leadership for too much longer.
Of course, not everyone agrees with me. James Carville was unhappy that the Democrats used airtime to do anything other than ridicule McCain, while David Brooks was unhappy that there was any ridiculing done, believing instead that the Democrats should have spent the evening talking about what a "good man" John McCain is. William Kristol, shockingly, was unimpressed.
Tonight ought to be some fun. It's night one of the Clinton Spectacle, starring Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, fresh off his not-unifying media-bashing yesterday, and finally, the vanquished Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Obama people have tried to take the spotlight off her performance by scheduling Kathleen Sebelius, Deval Patrick, and Keynote Speaker Mark Warner the same evening. Yeah, I bet that works out well for them.
I guess we're about to find out.
Monday, August 25, 2008
The Next Next President
One thing that hasn't gotten a lot of discussion in the media is the bearing that Biden's selection will have on the Democratic Primary contest in 2016, should Sen. Obama win two terms in office. It is widely accepted that at age 73, Biden would choose not to seek the Democratic nomination eight years from now, leading to a situation where there is no heir apparent in the party.
Critics have charged that this would lead to another bloodbath, a competitive primary challenge where a couple top-tier contenders and four or five second-level entrants battle each other for the crown. There is a lot of conventional wisdom out there that indicates such an outcome would be terrible, a replay of 1968 or 2008, where internecine divisions are opened up and violent exchanges in March and April leave open wounds in September and October.
But the other side of the coin is that by selecting Biden, Obama has left the primary voters in charge of selecting a new leader in eight years. Joe Biden is a good guy, but there's no real reason to believe that the issue-set and temperament he brings to the table, valuable in 2008, will be equally fresh almost a decade down the road. Nominating Evan Bayh would have given him a leg up in 2016, when he'd only be sixty or so. But if the issue of the day in 2016 happens to be the environment, or the Republicans nominate a charismatic talker, then that advantage for the candidate would really be a disadvantage to the party.
By putting the selection of the next next-President into the hands of voters, where it belongs, Obama made the decision to wait until the electoral landscape was more clearly defined to select an heir. This is a decision that I believe will be beneficial in the long run, even if it results in a few bumps and scrapes the next time around.
Critics have charged that this would lead to another bloodbath, a competitive primary challenge where a couple top-tier contenders and four or five second-level entrants battle each other for the crown. There is a lot of conventional wisdom out there that indicates such an outcome would be terrible, a replay of 1968 or 2008, where internecine divisions are opened up and violent exchanges in March and April leave open wounds in September and October.
But the other side of the coin is that by selecting Biden, Obama has left the primary voters in charge of selecting a new leader in eight years. Joe Biden is a good guy, but there's no real reason to believe that the issue-set and temperament he brings to the table, valuable in 2008, will be equally fresh almost a decade down the road. Nominating Evan Bayh would have given him a leg up in 2016, when he'd only be sixty or so. But if the issue of the day in 2016 happens to be the environment, or the Republicans nominate a charismatic talker, then that advantage for the candidate would really be a disadvantage to the party.
By putting the selection of the next next-President into the hands of voters, where it belongs, Obama made the decision to wait until the electoral landscape was more clearly defined to select an heir. This is a decision that I believe will be beneficial in the long run, even if it results in a few bumps and scrapes the next time around.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Inch by Inch, Poll by Poll...
There have been some interesting Senate polls released in the last few days, leaving open the possibility of winning a sixty-seat Democratic majority. First, from the Land of 10,000 Lakes, a Minnesota Public Radio poll (August 7-17, 763 LV) shows Al Franken up one point on incumbent Republican Norm Coleman:
Franken (D) 41 (-2)
Coleman (R) 40 (n/c)
This is one of the first surveys to show the comedian and Air America host ahead. There's another unusual result in from North Carolina, where InsiderAdvantage (August 19, 614 LV) has Democratic challenger Kay Hagan locked in a dead heat with Senator Elizabeth Dole:
Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 40
Obama may seem to be having trouble in recent surveys, but Sen. Chuck Schumer's DSCC effort is beginning to pay off. Picking up these two seats would bring us closer to a filibuster-proof majority, meaning that we would only need an upset in Maine and another in Oregon to reach the ultimate goal. At this point, it's still highly unlikely, but these numbers are an encouraging sign.
Franken (D) 41 (-2)
Coleman (R) 40 (n/c)
This is one of the first surveys to show the comedian and Air America host ahead. There's another unusual result in from North Carolina, where InsiderAdvantage (August 19, 614 LV) has Democratic challenger Kay Hagan locked in a dead heat with Senator Elizabeth Dole:
Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 40
Obama may seem to be having trouble in recent surveys, but Sen. Chuck Schumer's DSCC effort is beginning to pay off. Picking up these two seats would bring us closer to a filibuster-proof majority, meaning that we would only need an upset in Maine and another in Oregon to reach the ultimate goal. At this point, it's still highly unlikely, but these numbers are an encouraging sign.
The Biden Roll-Out: A Retrospective
Now that the ridiculousness is over, I'd like to take a moment to reflect back upon the genius of Obama's week-long VP extravaganza. I feel obligated to do this because of the many critical comments I made toward the end of last week as it became apparent Obama was not going to announce until the weekend. I felt, and repeatedly opined that announcing on the weekend, leaving only a Sunday before Denver, foolishly compressed the event and reduced its visibility. I once again failed to give proper credit to Obama's people, who engineered a press spectacle that will be studied for generations.
By the time Friday afternoon rolled around, the weekday press had realized they were not going to get the first crack at the story, and started spinning ever more hysterical theories as to who the nominee would be. Chet Edwards and Hillary Clinton suddenly rocketed to the forefront of the echo chamber as camera crews camped out in the front yard of Evan Bayh's Indiana residence.
As Friday afternoon ended and evening set in, the weekday media signed off and the twenty-four hour cable news took over. We were treated to endless clips of "journalists" checking their BlackBerrys and reporting that nothing has changed. As the night wore on, a steady stream of leaks kept the conversation current. First, sources inside Gov. Kaine's office reported he was called and told it wasn't him. Then Bayh's office confirmed that he was out of the running. Five minutes later, Bayh's front lawn was dark and vacant, and the Indiana senator was thrust back into obscurity.
Marc Ambinder over at The Atlantic was the first to report on a charter flight from Chicago-Midway to New Castle, DE, speculating it was there perhaps to pick up a Veep nominee. Finally, ABC reported at around 10:50 p.m. that the U.S. Secret Service had been dispatched to Senator Biden's house. At 12:45 a.m., CNN confirmed that Biden had been selected, triggering the 3:00 a.m. text by the Obama camp, which had originally been scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET.
By drawing the revelation out until the last possible moment, the Obama camp took advantage of the 24-hour news cycle, forcing the reporting to become ever more urgent, with every non-development trumpeted as "game-changing." Given a single topic and nothing but time, CNN, MSNBC, and FoxNews went wild, lending greater stature to a mostly symbolic event. The publicity was intense and positive, and the relief following the revelation was profound. The Springfield rally the next day was almost a catharsis, a celebration of the end of the spectacle.
The Obama campaign turned what could have been seen as a "safe," uninspired choice into a media event that made Biden seem like the most important man in America. The Saturday announcement will transition across Sunday into the Monday Convention debut, blunting the kind of second-wave negativism that usually follows Veep announcements. The strategy was brilliantly planned and flawlessly executed; what remains to be seen is whether it will prove effective in the long-term.
By the time Friday afternoon rolled around, the weekday press had realized they were not going to get the first crack at the story, and started spinning ever more hysterical theories as to who the nominee would be. Chet Edwards and Hillary Clinton suddenly rocketed to the forefront of the echo chamber as camera crews camped out in the front yard of Evan Bayh's Indiana residence.
As Friday afternoon ended and evening set in, the weekday media signed off and the twenty-four hour cable news took over. We were treated to endless clips of "journalists" checking their BlackBerrys and reporting that nothing has changed. As the night wore on, a steady stream of leaks kept the conversation current. First, sources inside Gov. Kaine's office reported he was called and told it wasn't him. Then Bayh's office confirmed that he was out of the running. Five minutes later, Bayh's front lawn was dark and vacant, and the Indiana senator was thrust back into obscurity.
Marc Ambinder over at The Atlantic was the first to report on a charter flight from Chicago-Midway to New Castle, DE, speculating it was there perhaps to pick up a Veep nominee. Finally, ABC reported at around 10:50 p.m. that the U.S. Secret Service had been dispatched to Senator Biden's house. At 12:45 a.m., CNN confirmed that Biden had been selected, triggering the 3:00 a.m. text by the Obama camp, which had originally been scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET.
By drawing the revelation out until the last possible moment, the Obama camp took advantage of the 24-hour news cycle, forcing the reporting to become ever more urgent, with every non-development trumpeted as "game-changing." Given a single topic and nothing but time, CNN, MSNBC, and FoxNews went wild, lending greater stature to a mostly symbolic event. The publicity was intense and positive, and the relief following the revelation was profound. The Springfield rally the next day was almost a catharsis, a celebration of the end of the spectacle.
The Obama campaign turned what could have been seen as a "safe," uninspired choice into a media event that made Biden seem like the most important man in America. The Saturday announcement will transition across Sunday into the Monday Convention debut, blunting the kind of second-wave negativism that usually follows Veep announcements. The strategy was brilliantly planned and flawlessly executed; what remains to be seen is whether it will prove effective in the long-term.
The Great Unveiling
Photo by Erich DeLang SPRINGFIELD, IL - And so it came to pass that on a summer's day, a crowd thirty-five thousand strong gathered to bear witness to the unveiling of the One's One, he who had also been chosen to wield the Flame of Change.
The AccountsPolitical team arrived in Springfield about 12:30, at which time the traffic in the downtown was fairly snarled. We were able to find parking perhaps eight blocks from the event site, and a quick walk brought us to the end of the security queue. The line passed along-side literally dozens of ad hoc souvenir and tee shirt booths, where barkers hocked Obama merchandise using liberal sales techniques. These included, "buy your union-made Obama tee shirts," and "Obama bead jewelery from Guatemala puts food on Mayan Indian tables."
The air was thick and still, the heat from the blazing sun and baking pavement drawing sweat almost immediately. There had been a call for isolated thunderstorms earlier in the day, but the weather ended up cooperating as well as could be expected in Southern Illinois in August. The Fire Department had opened up numerous mains and hydrants, powering misters and spray-showers. Children played in the streams of water, which ran lazily to the drains as the firemen sat passively and watched the ambling crowd.
Obama volunteers lined the corners, maintaining order, telling people to turn their electronics on and discard their bottles and other questionable possessions. As we drew nearer the security checkpoint, there appeared on the side of the walkway piles of bottles and umbrellas that had been discarded by the crowd, stacked on curbs and windowsills of abandoned store-fronts. Upon actually reaching the checkpoint, we were given the most cursory of inspections before being allowed into the barricaded viewing area.
The entire Old Capitol as well as the four streets surrounding it had been closed off by police, and were now packed to the bursting point with excited fans. Campaign volunteers and police were trying to herd the crowd away from the podium, where the mass had become dangerously compressed, but were largely unable to keep the crowd from pressing forward to the stage. Police and Secret Service personnel lined the rooftops of the buildings surrounding the square, watching over the crowd with binoculars and automatic weapons.
The crowd was extremely diverse, much more than I would have expected at this venue. There were the usual assortment of young idealists, but also a surprisingly large contingent of senior citizens with canes and in wheelchairs, braving the heat to watch the introduction of the Democratic Ticket. The crowd was black, white, brown, all gathered up and mixed together, baking in the sun.
At 2:00 on the dot, Springfield Mayor Timothy Davlin welcomed the everyone and introduced a Gold Star father, who led the crowd in the Pledge of Allegiance. He then introduced a reverend who gave the benediction. The reverend led the assembled mass in a VERY detailed and policy-oriented prayer. As he listed plank after plank of the Democratic Party Platform, boxes of newly minted Obama-Biden placards began traveling through the crowd. The good reverend then introduced the Junior Senator from Illinois.
Obama's entrance was marked, as always, by a raucous reaction. The hundred-degree heat did little to stifle their enthusiasm, and it was a good minute or two before Obama was able to begin his remarks. His introduction of Biden was warm and effusive, praising the six-term senator as "a statesman with sound judgement." Just before turning over the stage to Biden, Obama slipped and introduced him as "the next President," a line seized upon by the McCain campaign before the day was up.
Biden ran onstage from our side of the square, waving in all directions before embracing Obama as the crowd hoisted their placards high. After the applause died down, he spoke at length about hope for change and the direction he sees for this country. He did very well, touching upon his blue-collar background and his vast foreign policy experience. He went off-script at the end, referring to his "drop-dead gorgeous" wife, but all-in-all, he behaved himself remarkably well.
The crowd ate it up, and when he had finished, Obama rejoined him on the stage for round after round of thunderous applause. The feeling in the audience was one of great expectations. There is a lot of ground to cover between now and November 4th, but in the sun in that moment, the fresh-faced Obama and seasoned Biden looked every bit like the next President and Vice-President of the United States.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
John McCain, American Everyman
Faux-populism has always been a prevailing feature of the conservative movement, an election-year strategy that has proven to be indispensable at dispatching liberal opponents. In 2000 Bush proudly stated at a black-tie dinner, “This is an impressive crowd: the haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elite; I call you my base.” Four years later, he proceeded to run a campaign based on the idea that John Kerry was a elitist, rich, out of touch debutante, while Bush himself was a man of the people, a rancher, more middle-class than prep-school.
While this version of reality was preposterous, many Americans bought into the line, and voted for George W. Bush because he claimed to respect them and share their values (in all fairness, John Kerry was all the things that Bush tagged him with, other than a traitor; it's just that Bush was an even better example of this type of person).
Now, Sen. McCain, John McCain of $520 shoes and 10 houses, is using the same tactic against Obama. His new ad talks about how easy Obama has it, while ordinary Americans “like us” struggle in an economic climate suddenly, inexplicably, turned against us. This is John McCain, son of a four-star Admiral, grandson of a four-star Admiral, schooled at a preparatory academe, legacy admission to and bare graduation from Annapolis.
Yes, yes, he spent five years sleeping on the floor of a bamboo cage. But lets be serious, if only for a second; those five years were the only five years McCain hasn't gone to bed on silk sheets. He was born into an elite family, married into one even more so, and now claims that his opponent, fathered by an immigrant nobody and raised by another nobody, who rose from obscurity to become the first black editor of the Harvard Law Review, is the one who had a smooth ride. Yes, John McCain was a prisoner of war and American hero. But as Wesley Clark said, if you run for President in 2008, you gotta bring something more to the table than, “I got shot down in 1967.”
But it's not just in this area that McCain sounds ridiculous. On August 19, John McCain apparently referred to lobbyists as “birds of prey” who feed on destroy good government, and pledged that there would be no place for them in his administration, should he be elected. McCain is going to have a hell of a time keeping lobbyists out of his White House when he doesn't even have the fortitude to keep them out of his campaign.
The loudest voice on his crew calling for the admission of Georgia into NATO was none other than a former lobbyist for Georgia. He's already had to ask several members of his team to step down, not because of lobbying, but because of blatantly inappropriate lobbying that presented numerous conflicts of interest. The fact is that in the primaries, John McCain took more money from lobbyists than any other candidate running for President. His campaign manager and top adviser are both registered lobbyists. There's no ambiguity here; McCain is extremely cozy with lobbyists. Statements to the contrary are patently absurd.
Now, I'm not going to go so far as to say that lobbyists are Satan's spawn. There's nothing wrong with advocacy for a viewpoint, even paid advocacy. I've even spent time lobbying legislators in an official capacity when I was in college. The problem is when lobbyist associations create either perceived or potential conflicts of interests with one's professional responsibilities.
I lobbied for several pieces of legislation on behalf of my college, but it's not like I worked for the legislators that voted on the bills, or really even the education "industry" itself. I don't necessarily agree with McCain that lobbyists are "birds of prey," but that's OK since neither does McCain. Nor do I think that being affluent should be a barrier to public office (though neither should a lack of worldly wealth); again, McCain clearly agrees with me. I just wish he'd cut the antics and say so.
Oh No, It's Joe!
The text finally arrived early this morning, at 2:48 a.m. CST:
Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee. Watch the first Obama-Biden rally at 3pm ET on www.BarackObama.com. Spread the word.I will be in Springfield this afternoon covering the rally. I expect to post a recap sometime later tonight or early tomorrow.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Speculation That Doesn't Involve Joe Biden
By July, Vitol had increased its market share, holding 11% of all oil futures traded on the NYMEX. The Commission study found that Vitol was not alone, and in fact determined that financial firms and their clients controlled an astounding 81% of traded futures contracts, a number that is expected to rise as more firms are audited. By bringing the heft on the financial industry to bear on an already inflated commodities market, these investment groups were able to initiate a stratospheric rise in the price of oil, one that far outpaced actual demand.
If this is a little complicated, let me break it down: the much-maligned oil companies, already turning out a product that is producing recording-breaking profits for them, sold contracts for the purchase of oil to a handful of investment banks, which then added a premium surcharge on top, before selling the contracts at a higher price to the refining interests that turn oil in other petroleum products. As soon as it became clear that this was unsustainable, these firms sold off their contracts, leading to the 22% deflation in the price of oil between July and the closing bell yesterday.
This turn of events is a relief to the average consumer, of course, but it doesn't refund the manufactured demand premium that we have been paying on everything for the last few months. While complicated and likely even legal, this defrauding of the American public should be considered outrageous, if not particularly surprising. It's the child of excessive deregulation; the steady weakening of oversight that has led to capitalism run amok. But even at this late stage of the current economic breakdown, there is great resistance to more financial transparency. It's too bad this story is likely to get lost in the election coverage, because it would make a pretty good talking point for the Democrats.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones: 1949-2008
The New York Times is reporting that Ohio Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, found unconscious yesterday in her car, has died of complications secondary to a cerebral aneurysm. She was a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, the first member of Congress to join Sen. Barbara Boxer in officially objecting to the reported results of the 2004 Presidential election, and the first black woman to represent Ohio in the House. She was 58.
The Slow Unraveling of the Great Design
It is starting to look like while we were all paying attention to the thing I am refusing to talk about, the hawks and wolves in our midst have mired us in another Cold War that could last decades. In the course of just the last few weeks, NATO (ie. The U.S.) has begun to shut down communication and cooperation with Moscow, which in turn has led Moscow to engage in proportional freezing. The right-wing's loud demands to admit Georgia (and many other former Soviet satellites) into NATO have resulted in a geographically different but strategically similar expansion of the Warsaw Pact.
Finally, the U.S. insistence on a ballistic missile shield with launch sites in Poland has led the Russians to threaten all-out war, leading us to threaten all-out retaliation. Two weeks ago we were talking about Paris Hilton's response to McCain's T.V. spot, and now it almost seems as if we should start dusting off the Strategic Air Command and stocking fallout shelters with food.
What's stupid about all this is that it was completely avoidable. Tom Friedman makes exactly this point in a New York Times piece this morning, explaining how our neglect and antagonism of the budding Russian democracy circa 1993 led to the rise of Putin and the hardliners. When given the opportunity to become a friend to our vanquished arch-enemy, we chose instead to strengthen our alliance against them, cornering, humiliating, and enraging them. What a shock that they eventually bit back.
For all the talk about the "pre-9/11" mindset that Democrats and liberals are supposed to be stuck in, the right-wing has never moved out of the "pre-Cold War" mindset. They continue to insist that the world follow American dictates and remain beholden to American interests. When there is rebellion against this regime, the response must be instant and violent. Anything short is appeasement.
While this might have worked as the sole foreign policy of a super-power in an age before globalization, interdependency, and Mutually Assured Destruction, it is utterly preposterous in this day and age. As the list of events I opened this post with demonstrates, every action that Republicans demand will result in a reaction from Russia. Nuance, realism, detente: these are the tools of modern diplomacy, which lives in a world that has become both too small and too dangerous for hotheaded bluster.
I'm not crying that the sky is falling. I don't believe we are in for a nuclear war. But the foolish exchange of grunts across the sea has already resulted in a chain-reaction that is going to take many years and billions of dollars to inch back from. This brief exchange will undoubtedly birth new fighter jets, satellite surveillance systems, and tactical nuclear weapons that won't debut for decades, funded with tax dollars that could have gone to schools and health care. What a tremendous waste.
Finally, the U.S. insistence on a ballistic missile shield with launch sites in Poland has led the Russians to threaten all-out war, leading us to threaten all-out retaliation. Two weeks ago we were talking about Paris Hilton's response to McCain's T.V. spot, and now it almost seems as if we should start dusting off the Strategic Air Command and stocking fallout shelters with food.
What's stupid about all this is that it was completely avoidable. Tom Friedman makes exactly this point in a New York Times piece this morning, explaining how our neglect and antagonism of the budding Russian democracy circa 1993 led to the rise of Putin and the hardliners. When given the opportunity to become a friend to our vanquished arch-enemy, we chose instead to strengthen our alliance against them, cornering, humiliating, and enraging them. What a shock that they eventually bit back.
For all the talk about the "pre-9/11" mindset that Democrats and liberals are supposed to be stuck in, the right-wing has never moved out of the "pre-Cold War" mindset. They continue to insist that the world follow American dictates and remain beholden to American interests. When there is rebellion against this regime, the response must be instant and violent. Anything short is appeasement.
While this might have worked as the sole foreign policy of a super-power in an age before globalization, interdependency, and Mutually Assured Destruction, it is utterly preposterous in this day and age. As the list of events I opened this post with demonstrates, every action that Republicans demand will result in a reaction from Russia. Nuance, realism, detente: these are the tools of modern diplomacy, which lives in a world that has become both too small and too dangerous for hotheaded bluster.
I'm not crying that the sky is falling. I don't believe we are in for a nuclear war. But the foolish exchange of grunts across the sea has already resulted in a chain-reaction that is going to take many years and billions of dollars to inch back from. This brief exchange will undoubtedly birth new fighter jets, satellite surveillance systems, and tactical nuclear weapons that won't debut for decades, funded with tax dollars that could have gone to schools and health care. What a tremendous waste.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
You Might Wanna Sit Down For This
It turns out that the dead Sasquatch that appeared in Georgia almost a week ago was really just a rubber gorilla suit stuffed with opossum guts. Nice. Maybe next time.
Friday?! Whatever.
CBS News has confirmed that Obama, taking the risk that the media might actually EXPLODE, is going to wait until Friday afternoon to roll out his VP. Also on the Veep front, Joe Biden told a mob of reporters outside his house to bugger off, 'cause he's not the guy. While this could be meaningless misdirection, Biden looked pretty serious when he said it, so who knows.
Journalistic frenzies like this produce some pretty divergent reporting and it's hard to distinguish the outliers until after the fact. Basically, don't listen to anything you read anywhere about the Veepstakes until he picks someone, not even posts on this site. Actually, I'll do you one better. Until Obama bites the bullet and sends out the text, I'm done talking about it.
Journalistic frenzies like this produce some pretty divergent reporting and it's hard to distinguish the outliers until after the fact. Basically, don't listen to anything you read anywhere about the Veepstakes until he picks someone, not even posts on this site. Actually, I'll do you one better. Until Obama bites the bullet and sends out the text, I'm done talking about it.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Here It Comes...Almost There...I Can Almost See It...Wait...
After months of baseless speculation, countless weeks listing the pros and cons of the same four people, endless days of trying to come up with the weirdest guess to put in print, we are nearing the actual VP selection!!! Drudge reports that the New York Times reports that Obama has "all but finalized" his decision and is expected to announce...some time this week.
It will be late tonight, or early Tuesday morning! No says Marc, not tonight. Most others, not wanting to end up looking stupid, are sticking with "this week." The crack-head frenzy that began as the already caffeinated tradition of the "Veepstakes" has consumed the spare time of pundits and bloggers for far too long, and a respite, even if only for a week, will be quite welcome (I do not, by the way, exclude myself from this sickness; I count no less than a dozen posts on this blog over the last few weeks regarding this very topic).
Why has this year been so bad? The interest in this year's election has been intense, and as a result the demand for political stories has increased beyond reasonable expectations of supply. Normally, this market failure could be solved by expanding the depth of coverage, but it turns out that the American people aren't really interested in better coverage, or even different coverage: just more coverage. Not depth, per se, but breadth.
Again, I do not absolve myself of these sins, but I like to think that (from time to time) I at least try to elevate the level of discourse we as a society have about politics, and I am RELIEVED that in a few days, I'll be able to spend more time doing that, instead of being the 10,000th person to comb through Obama's press statements for hidden messages about red-state governors.
It will be late tonight, or early Tuesday morning! No says Marc, not tonight. Most others, not wanting to end up looking stupid, are sticking with "this week." The crack-head frenzy that began as the already caffeinated tradition of the "Veepstakes" has consumed the spare time of pundits and bloggers for far too long, and a respite, even if only for a week, will be quite welcome (I do not, by the way, exclude myself from this sickness; I count no less than a dozen posts on this blog over the last few weeks regarding this very topic).
Why has this year been so bad? The interest in this year's election has been intense, and as a result the demand for political stories has increased beyond reasonable expectations of supply. Normally, this market failure could be solved by expanding the depth of coverage, but it turns out that the American people aren't really interested in better coverage, or even different coverage: just more coverage. Not depth, per se, but breadth.
Again, I do not absolve myself of these sins, but I like to think that (from time to time) I at least try to elevate the level of discourse we as a society have about politics, and I am RELIEVED that in a few days, I'll be able to spend more time doing that, instead of being the 10,000th person to comb through Obama's press statements for hidden messages about red-state governors.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The VP Lotto: Joe Biden
After spending most of the summer out-shined by newer and more buzz-worthy contenders such as Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius, Delaware Senator Joe Biden has suddenly become the Veep du jour in a contest that's just about over. The media narrative seems to have at last coalesced around his candidacy, and the timing couldn't be better. There is a lot of suspicion in the smart crowd that he's going to be the pick, and that it's going to come down early this week, and his weekend trip to Georgia to avert a new Cold War isn't quieting any of it down. So, before he gets picked and I look stupid for profiling nobody Tim Kaine before him, let's do Joe Biden.
Biden would bring a tremendous amount of experience to the ticket, having served continuously since being elected to the U.S. Senate in 1973 at the age of thirty. He has served as the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and currently serves as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is also Chairman of the Judiciary's Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs, as well as a co-chairman of the Caucus on International Narcotics Control. His long experience in Washington lends him considerable credibility on questions of crime and foreign policy, two weak areas for Democrats generally and Obama specifically.
Very few people have as encyclopedic a grasp on world affairs as Biden does, and he would be able to wield this to considerable advantage both as a surrogate and during the October 2nd VP debate. On that note, Biden is a terrific debater and energetic campaigner, connecting well with the type of blue-collar Democrats that give Obama difficulty. He is also a passionate and skilled orator who would produce a ticket that is both inspired and inspiring. But the man is not without his downsides and flaws.
With his 35 year career in Washington, Biden is representative of the "same-old, same-old" that Obama has crafted his message to oppose, and it would be difficult to select him without looking beholden to the Democratic status-quo. Biden's initial support of the Iraq War doesn't help, nor does the fact that he argued against both the Surge and withdrawal, opting instead for a "federal" partition plan that has since lost favor in the Foreign Affairs world.
Biden also brings baggage with him, something the other candidates largely avoid. His 1988 Presidential Race was brought low by allegations (only mostly false) of plagiarism, and his political career has frequently been marred by uncontrollable gaffe-producing that is both a result of his cleverness and candor, and a result of how much he thinks of his cleverness and candor. Joe Biden loves Joe Biden, and a ticket with both Obama and Biden might look a little to rarefied for the average American.
Despite these limitations and liabilities, Biden's advantages might well outweigh the risks he carries, as well as the risks of his fellow shortlisters. He is currently the media favorite for the nomination, and in the last week has seen his stock double on the Intrade network, but my money is still on Bayh. Either way, we'll all know very, very soon.
Biden would bring a tremendous amount of experience to the ticket, having served continuously since being elected to the U.S. Senate in 1973 at the age of thirty. He has served as the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and currently serves as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is also Chairman of the Judiciary's Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs, as well as a co-chairman of the Caucus on International Narcotics Control. His long experience in Washington lends him considerable credibility on questions of crime and foreign policy, two weak areas for Democrats generally and Obama specifically.
Very few people have as encyclopedic a grasp on world affairs as Biden does, and he would be able to wield this to considerable advantage both as a surrogate and during the October 2nd VP debate. On that note, Biden is a terrific debater and energetic campaigner, connecting well with the type of blue-collar Democrats that give Obama difficulty. He is also a passionate and skilled orator who would produce a ticket that is both inspired and inspiring. But the man is not without his downsides and flaws.
With his 35 year career in Washington, Biden is representative of the "same-old, same-old" that Obama has crafted his message to oppose, and it would be difficult to select him without looking beholden to the Democratic status-quo. Biden's initial support of the Iraq War doesn't help, nor does the fact that he argued against both the Surge and withdrawal, opting instead for a "federal" partition plan that has since lost favor in the Foreign Affairs world.
Biden also brings baggage with him, something the other candidates largely avoid. His 1988 Presidential Race was brought low by allegations (only mostly false) of plagiarism, and his political career has frequently been marred by uncontrollable gaffe-producing that is both a result of his cleverness and candor, and a result of how much he thinks of his cleverness and candor. Joe Biden loves Joe Biden, and a ticket with both Obama and Biden might look a little to rarefied for the average American.
Despite these limitations and liabilities, Biden's advantages might well outweigh the risks he carries, as well as the risks of his fellow shortlisters. He is currently the media favorite for the nomination, and in the last week has seen his stock double on the Intrade network, but my money is still on Bayh. Either way, we'll all know very, very soon.
Hypocrites Calling Hypocrites Hypocrites
As has been widely reported on this blog and others, the New York Times released its Non-Fiction Bestseller list this morning and the anti-Obama diatribe The Obama Nation was at the top. It is there not because of the free-market, a mechanism that allowed the book to compete with others and achieve a level of popularity equivalent to the skill used to craft it, but in spite of the market.
Book sales have been largely driven by bulk orders from conservative book clubs, and what small percentage are based on direct retail sales are being boosted by a promotional campaign not just from the publisher (Threshold Editions, chaired by none other than Republican activist-cum-literary elite Mary Matlin) but by the entire Republican media conglomeration. The author has been interviewed dozens of times by talk-radio and FoxNews type outlets, sponsored of course by the commercial advertisers that help fund McCain's campaign.
In light of this blatant rigging of the system, the proposition that Obama had to take public financing in order to be as honest as McCain is ludicrous. McCain, like Bush before him, was counting on the assistance of a vast, right-wing conspiracy to mobilize his soldiers. The campaign is only secondary to a much larger and richer movement to make him the next President. Until there is an honest attempt by both parties to limit this sort of behavior, there will be no meaningful campaign finance reform. And if John "Maverick" McCain of McCain-Feingold fame isn't prepared to call this stuff out, then all of his talk about wanting an honest and fair system is just that.
Book sales have been largely driven by bulk orders from conservative book clubs, and what small percentage are based on direct retail sales are being boosted by a promotional campaign not just from the publisher (Threshold Editions, chaired by none other than Republican activist-cum-literary elite Mary Matlin) but by the entire Republican media conglomeration. The author has been interviewed dozens of times by talk-radio and FoxNews type outlets, sponsored of course by the commercial advertisers that help fund McCain's campaign.
In light of this blatant rigging of the system, the proposition that Obama had to take public financing in order to be as honest as McCain is ludicrous. McCain, like Bush before him, was counting on the assistance of a vast, right-wing conspiracy to mobilize his soldiers. The campaign is only secondary to a much larger and richer movement to make him the next President. Until there is an honest attempt by both parties to limit this sort of behavior, there will be no meaningful campaign finance reform. And if John "Maverick" McCain of McCain-Feingold fame isn't prepared to call this stuff out, then all of his talk about wanting an honest and fair system is just that.
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