Rasmussen Reports has a new poll (August 13, 700 LV) out this morning showing McCain up a point, one of the few surveys this year that has put him on top:
McCain (R) 49 (+7)
Obama (D) 48 (-1)
Of course they also have a poll up showing Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman leading Saturday Night Live star and Air America host Al Franken by only three points, a vast improvement for Mr. Franken from most surveys taken this year. Part of the reason Rasmussen get such different numbers can be attributed to the fact that they generally use an extremely narrow (one day in this case) time horizon and utilize computers and automated systems to administer the poll.
Winning Colorado is a large goal of the Western part of Obama's 50 State Strategy, and losing there could cripple him if he chooses not to contest Florida or Ohio. But the trend lines in Colorado have been pointing one way all year, and a one-day robo-survey is hardly a reliable indicator of anything.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Soldiers, Veeps, and Big Hairy Monsters
The Center for Responsive Politics today revealed that Sen. Obama is leading Sen. McCain in donations from U.S. soldiers by almost thirty percent. When troops serving overseas are separated from the larger group, Obama's lead is more than six-to-one. This is unusual considering John McCain's well-known war record and POW imprisonment, but seems to suggests widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo both at home and abroad. Obama should take advantage of the headline and appear with troops at Pearl Harbor tomorrow; he's been silent for quite awhile.
Meanwhile, Hillary is going to have her name placed in nomination after all, and it has been announced that Sens. Joe Biden and Evan Bayh will both speak on Wednesday night of the Convention, the same night as the eventual VP nominee. This has caused some to speculate that they are thus excluded from potential nomination, and others to speculate that it is one or the other. The Convention is only 10 days away and they need time for an elaborate roll-out, so a pick this coming week is nearly certain.
Georgia is again in the news, but this time it's the state and it's because the body of a Sasquatch has apparently turned up. Two Bigfoot hunters have announced the discovery of a body they claim to be that of the legendary creature, and are planning on releasing DNA evidence at a press conference in Palo Alto tomorrow afternoon. While there is a lot of skepticism out there, there is also a lot of curiosity and some belief that the thing could be real. We'll probably know sometime in the next day or so.
Meanwhile, Hillary is going to have her name placed in nomination after all, and it has been announced that Sens. Joe Biden and Evan Bayh will both speak on Wednesday night of the Convention, the same night as the eventual VP nominee. This has caused some to speculate that they are thus excluded from potential nomination, and others to speculate that it is one or the other. The Convention is only 10 days away and they need time for an elaborate roll-out, so a pick this coming week is nearly certain.
Georgia is again in the news, but this time it's the state and it's because the body of a Sasquatch has apparently turned up. Two Bigfoot hunters have announced the discovery of a body they claim to be that of the legendary creature, and are planning on releasing DNA evidence at a press conference in Palo Alto tomorrow afternoon. While there is a lot of skepticism out there, there is also a lot of curiosity and some belief that the thing could be real. We'll probably know sometime in the next day or so.
Playing To Your Weaknesses
There seem to be some indications this week that the conflict in the Caucasus region is having an effect on the types of candidates that Obama is vetting for his second spot. While just a week ago it seemed that most candidates on the shortlist were without defense expertise (the exception being Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee), names like Gen. Wesley Clark, former Sen. Sam Nunn, and even Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel have all been floated in recent days.
While it's far from clear that all of these candidates are even interested in running (Nunn has been ambivalent, Clark has endorsed Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius for the job), the shift in tone can be explained as much by recent events as it can by Mr. McCain's attempt to exploit recent events. Despite his inability to pronounce Georgian President Nicola Saakashvili's name, and the fact that much of the information used to establish his position was lifted from Wikipedia, McCain has been campaigning on his unimpeachable expertise when it comes to questions of Georgia and Russia. The flip-side, as always, is the never-quite-voiced implication that Obama couldn't find them on a map. Eyeing the weakness, Obama may be shifting the criteria for his VP selection to counter.
This is just plain lousy strategy. In the same way that Obama will never be able to “out-hardcore” McCain when it comes to crazy-ass, irresponsible foreign policy, he will never be able to select a Democrat who won't be tagged immediately as a wimp. Witness the transfiguration of John F. Kerry, Vietnam Vet and three-time Purple Heart winner, who became a baugette-eating fairy-boy nancy-pants frog just days after winning the nomination. It could have been Wesley Clark on that ticket, or even John Rambo, but if he'd have had a (D) after his name, he'd have been cast as a fag.
The road to victory lies not in trying to out-Republican the Republicans by playing to Democratic weaknesses, but by shifting the dialog away from those areas and toward historic strengths. We are all Georgians? Yeah, just like we were all Afghani in 2001 and Iraqi in 2003. Let's try, “we are all Americans, who need to be more worried about heating our homes this winter and affording the medicines that keep us alive than basking in the idea that we might get to fight the Communists for another five decades.”
Americans don't know where Georgia is and don't really care; Obama should not allow the issue to become front-and-center, where it can erode his advantages. Nor should he select a VP whose talents are limited to this arena. There are simply more treacherous challenges facing America today, and it's going to be awful hard to make that point when right out of the gate you concede it.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
This Can't Possibly Work, Right?
On Sunday, the newest edition of the New York Times Hardcover Bestsellers list will debut Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality at #1. This incredible smear takes the job that was done to John Kerry four years ago to an entirely different level. It is penned by Dr. Jerome R. Corsi, author of 2004's Unfit for Command, the polemic that brought down the Democrat in that race. This version, released precisely four years to the month after Unfit, makes no attempt at subtlety.
The book, I am told, strikes basically three notes: Obama the Imam, Obama the Panther, and Obama the Crack-Head. The book argues that Obama has a far closer relationship with radical Islamic fundamentalists than is portrayed, that Obama was left angry and full of "black rage" by his alcoholic, polygamist father, and exorcised these demons through a prolific use of drugs that may continue to this day.
There are already numerous sites posting the factual errors of the work, but more breathtaking is the blatant and naked way it plays toward religious and racial bigotry. I have many conservative friends who saw the Celeb ad McCain ran a few weeks ago, the one with Britney and Paris, and thought preposterous the idea that there was any racial color to it. Morbidly, I am actually curious as to what they think of this, whether they too will be dumbstruck, or will seek instead to defend it.
Not much politics this week: Obama's on vacation; Congress is still on recess; Republicans are still protesting recess; everyone's focus is on Beijing, and what little attention is left centers on obscure separatist enclaves that have suddenly threatened to reignite the Cold War. And the only news on that front is more duplicity from the Russians and more propaganda from everyone else. So no more news tonight, but maybe some tomorrow.
The book, I am told, strikes basically three notes: Obama the Imam, Obama the Panther, and Obama the Crack-Head. The book argues that Obama has a far closer relationship with radical Islamic fundamentalists than is portrayed, that Obama was left angry and full of "black rage" by his alcoholic, polygamist father, and exorcised these demons through a prolific use of drugs that may continue to this day.
There are already numerous sites posting the factual errors of the work, but more breathtaking is the blatant and naked way it plays toward religious and racial bigotry. I have many conservative friends who saw the Celeb ad McCain ran a few weeks ago, the one with Britney and Paris, and thought preposterous the idea that there was any racial color to it. Morbidly, I am actually curious as to what they think of this, whether they too will be dumbstruck, or will seek instead to defend it.
Not much politics this week: Obama's on vacation; Congress is still on recess; Republicans are still protesting recess; everyone's focus is on Beijing, and what little attention is left centers on obscure separatist enclaves that have suddenly threatened to reignite the Cold War. And the only news on that front is more duplicity from the Russians and more propaganda from everyone else. So no more news tonight, but maybe some tomorrow.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Christians for Obama
There's a new poll today by the Barna Group, a Christian polling firm, that shows Obama leading in 17 out of 18 so-called "faith groups." These include Atheists, Catholics, Protestants, and...born again Christians (43%-31%, when separated from their evangelical brethren). Respondents did not self-identify, but were asked a series of objective questions that were then used to separate them into distinct belief groups.
Obama fell short only among evangelicals, and if current trends hold, this will be the first time in more than two decades that a Democrat carries this many people of faith. It's a long way to November, but Mr. Obama's use of the language of faith as a vehicle to express his ideals seems to be paying fine dividends.
Obama fell short only among evangelicals, and if current trends hold, this will be the first time in more than two decades that a Democrat carries this many people of faith. It's a long way to November, but Mr. Obama's use of the language of faith as a vehicle to express his ideals seems to be paying fine dividends.
I Guess This Is Experience You Can Xerox
The Political Insider Blog has posted passages from the Wikipedia article on Georgia, passages that closely mirror John McCain's statement regarding the ongoing conflict. The best example they present is this:
After the Russian Revolution of 1917, Georgia had a brief period of independence as a Democratic Republic (1918-1921), which was terminated by the Red Army invasion of Georgia. Georgia became part of the Soviet Union in 1922 and regained its independence in 1991. Early post-Soviet years was marked by a civil unrest and economic crisis. (Wikipedia)
vs.
After a brief period of independence following the Russian revolution, the Red Army forced Georgia to join the Soviet Union in 1922. As the Soviet Union crumbled at the end of the Cold War, Georgia regained its independence in 1991, but its early years were marked by instability, corruption, and economic crises. (McCain)
The McCain campaign has denied the plagiarism charge, but they refuse to rule-out the possibility that Wikipedia was consulted during the authoring of the statement. While this is an amusing aside, it's hard to see how this will generate even remotely the same buzz that the Obama/Deval Patrick plagiarism charge did back in February. The media tends not to treat McCain the same way when it comes to these "silly season" scandals, and if you think that arguing media bias in McCain's favor is preposterous, just sit back and watch.
After the Russian Revolution of 1917, Georgia had a brief period of independence as a Democratic Republic (1918-1921), which was terminated by the Red Army invasion of Georgia. Georgia became part of the Soviet Union in 1922 and regained its independence in 1991. Early post-Soviet years was marked by a civil unrest and economic crisis. (Wikipedia)
vs.
After a brief period of independence following the Russian revolution, the Red Army forced Georgia to join the Soviet Union in 1922. As the Soviet Union crumbled at the end of the Cold War, Georgia regained its independence in 1991, but its early years were marked by instability, corruption, and economic crises. (McCain)
The McCain campaign has denied the plagiarism charge, but they refuse to rule-out the possibility that Wikipedia was consulted during the authoring of the statement. While this is an amusing aside, it's hard to see how this will generate even remotely the same buzz that the Obama/Deval Patrick plagiarism charge did back in February. The media tends not to treat McCain the same way when it comes to these "silly season" scandals, and if you think that arguing media bias in McCain's favor is preposterous, just sit back and watch.
Monday, August 11, 2008
The Bluing Of The Centennial State
A PPP (August 5-7, 933 LV) poll released earlier today shows Obama up four points in Colorado:
Obama (D) 48 (n/c)
McCain (R) 44 (n/c)
They also have a Senate poll out in the same state, where the Republicans are running Rep. Bob Schaffer against Democrat Rep. Mark Udall, the son of Arizona legislator Morris "Mo" Udall:
Udall (D) 47 (n/c)
Schaffer (R) 41 (+3)
While PPP is considered to be a capital-D Democratic organization, its pollster-introduced error tends to be lower than industry leaders such as Insider Advantage, ABC/Washington Post, Strategic Vision, and Gallup, and in the end it all boils down to who is closest.
These are good numbers for Democrats in Colorado, and if the trend holds it could indicate an impending Democratic sweep in the fall. August is awful early yet, but Colorado was awfully red not too long ago.
Obama (D) 48 (n/c)
McCain (R) 44 (n/c)
They also have a Senate poll out in the same state, where the Republicans are running Rep. Bob Schaffer against Democrat Rep. Mark Udall, the son of Arizona legislator Morris "Mo" Udall:
Udall (D) 47 (n/c)
Schaffer (R) 41 (+3)
While PPP is considered to be a capital-D Democratic organization, its pollster-introduced error tends to be lower than industry leaders such as Insider Advantage, ABC/Washington Post, Strategic Vision, and Gallup, and in the end it all boils down to who is closest.
These are good numbers for Democrats in Colorado, and if the trend holds it could indicate an impending Democratic sweep in the fall. August is awful early yet, but Colorado was awfully red not too long ago.
Howard Wolfson Says The Darndest Things
And I was just thinking to myself, "man, it's been too long since I've heard something inflammatory and outrageous come out of Howard Wolfson." It appears that as Captain of the Moron Squad, the former Clinton flack has taken it upon himself to craft yet another excuse for running a losing campaign. He speculates that had the media outed Edwards in the winter of 2007, his disenfranchised supporters would have flocked to Hillary.
A Post-ABC poll in July put Obama ahead 32 to 30 in as an alternate pick. By November it was 43 to 26 in Obama's favor, but by December, Hillary had narrowed it down to seven, 37 to 30. On the night of the caucus, 43% of Edward's voters described Obama as their second pick, followed by the 24% who selected Clinton.
All the available data directly conflicts with the account that Wolfson is proffering, but just because he's saying it doesn't mean he believes it. This is just one more attempt to insult Obama, another way to rouse the Hillary base. Get them angry at a media that protected Edwards, and they become angry at a media that "favors" Obama. Whether this is groundwork for Clinton '12 in case Obama tanks, or simply unbridled, malicious revenge, is unclear. Either way, he's one cold bastard.
"Our voters and Edwards' voters were the same people. They were older, pro-union. Not all, but maybe two-thirds of them would have been for us and we would have barely beaten Obama.""What luck that Iowa is virtually the only state where we don't have to speculate. Because of the nature of the caucusing system, with its viability requirements and multiple tallies, the polling done in the state prior to the Jan. 3 caucuses asked respondents, "if your candidate fails to meet the viability threshold, who is your second choice?" Drum roll please:
A Post-ABC poll in July put Obama ahead 32 to 30 in as an alternate pick. By November it was 43 to 26 in Obama's favor, but by December, Hillary had narrowed it down to seven, 37 to 30. On the night of the caucus, 43% of Edward's voters described Obama as their second pick, followed by the 24% who selected Clinton.
All the available data directly conflicts with the account that Wolfson is proffering, but just because he's saying it doesn't mean he believes it. This is just one more attempt to insult Obama, another way to rouse the Hillary base. Get them angry at a media that protected Edwards, and they become angry at a media that "favors" Obama. Whether this is groundwork for Clinton '12 in case Obama tanks, or simply unbridled, malicious revenge, is unclear. Either way, he's one cold bastard.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Weekly News Roundup: 8/10/08
This will be the first edition of what I hope to be a weekly summary of news and events, followed by a look at the week ahead. Why Sunday night? I figure it's the very end of the weekly news cycle, the last time a story can take hold before the major papers go to press Monday. I'll miss the late-breaking polls, but I'll cover those in the a.m. if there's anything worth saying about them.
Three stories dominated the news cycle this week: John Edwards' fall from grace, John McCain's negative advertising blitz, and the outbreak of war in the old Soviet republics. The first one of these was by far the most sensationalized, but conversely also the one with the least staying power. While Mr. Edwards has clearly conducted himself in a way that does great damage to his political future, the fact is that he has been out of the spotlight for a little while, and appears never to have been in serious contention for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket. This reduces the likelihood that this story will viewed in the context of the election, thus blunting its impact on the future of the race.
The McCain campaign finally seems to have found its footing, and has used a series of negative spots to knock Obama off-balance, but this has yet to result in a noticeable dip in Obama's polling numbers. While the ads focus largely on the juvenile topic of Obama's celebrity, this species of character assault has been know to produce stunning results, and its efficacy should NOT be doubted.
The most relevant development of the week, however, was the outbreak of warfare in the Caucasus region. What began simply as a Russian military response to repeated provocation from Georgia has escalated over the last thirty-six hours into a clearly existential battle for the future of the Western-backed Georgian government. Russia's disproportionate and violent assault has drawn condemnation from around the world, but there is little the West can do to force Moscow's hand.
As Politico has noted, this is a genuine "3 a.m." type event, and you can bet on a massive PR mobilization by both campaigns to show how plugged in they are to the situation on the ground. McCain is going to try and play up his toughness, drawing a hard-line and daring Russia to cross it, while Obama is likely to utilize slightly cooler rhetoric, stressing his firm but diplomatic approach to international crises.
This conflagration makes for a fine excuse to cancel Obama's widely derided vacation, and we may see him back in the news more quickly than we had anticipated. If not, expect this next week to be a quiet period of shifting and positioning in anticipation of the upcoming Veep selections and party conventions. The message calendars are probably pretty barren, but more than ever look for events to move the conversation. It could get intense quickly.
Three stories dominated the news cycle this week: John Edwards' fall from grace, John McCain's negative advertising blitz, and the outbreak of war in the old Soviet republics. The first one of these was by far the most sensationalized, but conversely also the one with the least staying power. While Mr. Edwards has clearly conducted himself in a way that does great damage to his political future, the fact is that he has been out of the spotlight for a little while, and appears never to have been in serious contention for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket. This reduces the likelihood that this story will viewed in the context of the election, thus blunting its impact on the future of the race.
The McCain campaign finally seems to have found its footing, and has used a series of negative spots to knock Obama off-balance, but this has yet to result in a noticeable dip in Obama's polling numbers. While the ads focus largely on the juvenile topic of Obama's celebrity, this species of character assault has been know to produce stunning results, and its efficacy should NOT be doubted.
The most relevant development of the week, however, was the outbreak of warfare in the Caucasus region. What began simply as a Russian military response to repeated provocation from Georgia has escalated over the last thirty-six hours into a clearly existential battle for the future of the Western-backed Georgian government. Russia's disproportionate and violent assault has drawn condemnation from around the world, but there is little the West can do to force Moscow's hand.
As Politico has noted, this is a genuine "3 a.m." type event, and you can bet on a massive PR mobilization by both campaigns to show how plugged in they are to the situation on the ground. McCain is going to try and play up his toughness, drawing a hard-line and daring Russia to cross it, while Obama is likely to utilize slightly cooler rhetoric, stressing his firm but diplomatic approach to international crises.
This conflagration makes for a fine excuse to cancel Obama's widely derided vacation, and we may see him back in the news more quickly than we had anticipated. If not, expect this next week to be a quiet period of shifting and positioning in anticipation of the upcoming Veep selections and party conventions. The message calendars are probably pretty barren, but more than ever look for events to move the conversation. It could get intense quickly.
Obama Veep Announcement Soon?
The Obama campaign, clearly in an attempt to assist my fledgling blogging efforts, has just sent me an email with the following crazy offer:
Of course the most likely explanation is that the campaign is justifiably concerned about a full week of dead air, and is looking for some way to keep the conversation from drifting onto questions about Obama's vacation at a time of domestic and international crisis, which is exactly where McCain wants to go. It would be unusual for Obama to end his vacation early to come home and make his selection, so the earliest we could reasonably see a name would be next Monday, or likelier still Tuesday. I not getting worked up quite yet.
Barack Obama is about to make one of the most important decisions of this campaign -- choosing a running mate.This is could be either just a shameless ploy to draw hits (and thus potential donors) to the site, or it could be the beginning of the PR ramp-up to an announcement. If it's the former, the announcement could still come anytime in the next two weeks, but if it's the latter, we are probably looking at several days of media speculation, coupled with a steady rhetorical roll-out of the themes the new ticket is going to focus upon.
You have helped build this movement from the bottom up, and Barack wants you to be the first to know his choice.
Sign up today to be the first to know:
http://my.barackobama.com/vp
You will receive an email the moment Barack makes his decision, or you can text VP to 62262 to receive a text message on your mobile phone.
Once you've signed up, please forward this email to your friends, family, and coworkers to let them know about this special opportunity.
No other campaign has done this before. You can be part of this important moment.
Of course the most likely explanation is that the campaign is justifiably concerned about a full week of dead air, and is looking for some way to keep the conversation from drifting onto questions about Obama's vacation at a time of domestic and international crisis, which is exactly where McCain wants to go. It would be unusual for Obama to end his vacation early to come home and make his selection, so the earliest we could reasonably see a name would be next Monday, or likelier still Tuesday. I not getting worked up quite yet.
Bring It On
The Financial Times has an amusing article reporting that Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman is being vetted as a possible running mate for John McCain. While I would no doubt enjoy the spectacle of Lieberman being forced to agree with Obama every time the conversation turns from Iraq, it's hard to believe that a national campaign run by Karl Rove's very own protege would select a number two vocally so critical of the campaign's entire economic and social message just to sell the tonic of "bipartisanship." Nonetheless, a boy can dream.
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