Saturday, August 9, 2008
New Domain Name
Hear Ye, Hear Ye! This blog is now being hosted at a new domain, http://www.accountspolitical.com, and can be accessed at that URL from now on. It will also remain available at the previous address for another few days. Thank you.
More Double Standards
I hate to keep barking up this tree, but after watching the media explosion over John Edwards' Friday admission of marital infidelity, I wondered why no one was questioning the John McCain on the same topic. It's clear, despite a contrary explanation in his autobiography, that he was unfaithful to his first wife, Carol McCain, with his second wife, Cindy Hensley. He obtained an Arizona certificate for his second marriage before terminating his first, according to an L.A. Times account.
Now I'd like to go on the record now by stating that I care as little about what McCain did 20 years ago in his marriage as I do about what he does with this one. Sexual monogamy would rarely be a deciding factor for me, and especially not in a year with such high stakes. But it still would be nice to see the media hold McCain to the same high standard set for Edwards, or to at least not get so much crap about "bias."
Now I'd like to go on the record now by stating that I care as little about what McCain did 20 years ago in his marriage as I do about what he does with this one. Sexual monogamy would rarely be a deciding factor for me, and especially not in a year with such high stakes. But it still would be nice to see the media hold McCain to the same high standard set for Edwards, or to at least not get so much crap about "bias."
The VP Lotto: Kathleen Sebelius
Today on The VP Lotto, we examine the dark horse candidacy of Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. She has been widely mentioned as a contender for the number two spot, owing to both her popularity in an unabashedly red state and early support of Obama's presidential campaign. Despite a lack of foreign policy and defense experience that is pretty much her only substantive weakness, Sebelius brings to the table the strongest "Change" credentials of any of the contenders, and an affable competence that has made her one of the most popular governors in America.
Sebelius had a peripatetic youth similar to Obama's, but with more strategic locales. She was born in Ohio, the daughter of a John Gilligan, who would be elected governor of that state in 1970. She had a childhood home in Michigan, and currently maintains a vacation house north of Traverse City. She later moved to Kansas and changed politics there dramatically.
Gov. Sebelius was first elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1986, leaving in 1994 to contest and win a race for state insurance commissioner, the first Democrat elected to that position in a hundred years. She achieved this distinction while at the same time refusing campaign contributions from the insurance industry, and later blocked a proposed merger of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas with an Indiana firm, the first time the corporation had ever been repelled.
She ran for Governor in 2002, defeating Republican Tim Shallenburger by eight-points, and won re-election by a landslide seventeen-point margin four years later, all in a state where only 27% of voters are registered as Democrats. This is made possible by her wide demographic support, including the approval of 49% of Republicans, 44% of conservatives, and a whopping 78% of moderates. This wide support has not been won by weak leadership on progressive issues.
In 2006, Sebelius fought for and won an additional $500 million for the funding of Kansas public schools (out of a total budget outlay of only $12 billion), while at the same time eliminating a $1.1 billion budget deficit she inherited from her predecessor. She achieved this victory against an opposition legislature and without a tax increase. She is a stalwart defender of abortion rights, the only one on the shortlist, and vetoed legislation to restrict abortions in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008. She is also, however, personally pro-life, and during her tenure as governor has instituted policies which reduced abortions by 12.6%.
Sebelius made it clear early on that environmental concerns were at the top of her list of priorities, and has vetoed bills authorizing the construction of coal-fired power plants on three separate occasions. She has repeatedly opposed conceal-and-carry laws and attempts to alter the Kansas State Constitution to ban gay marriage. She is also an opponent of capital punishment. In short, she retains progressive values and positions while still attracting voters who are largely ambivalent about Democrats.
A major strike against Sebelius, however is she does nothing to deflect criticisms of Obama as too inexperienced on security and foreign policy issues. She will also almost certainly be unable to deliver her state on November 4, and women voters swept up into the personality cult of Hillary might be resistant to a female nominee who is not their girl, though as far as I can tell there has been no opinion polling done on this subject (though you can be sure Obama is testing this).
In conclusion, Sebelius presents a compelling case to be nominated to the ticket. Her progressive credentials highlight the "change" message the Democrats are trying to run on this year, and her popularity among moderates and conservatives mirrors that of her potential running mate. She is a risky pick, no doubt, but one that I suspect could pay enormous dividends in the fall.
Sebelius had a peripatetic youth similar to Obama's, but with more strategic locales. She was born in Ohio, the daughter of a John Gilligan, who would be elected governor of that state in 1970. She had a childhood home in Michigan, and currently maintains a vacation house north of Traverse City. She later moved to Kansas and changed politics there dramatically.
Gov. Sebelius was first elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1986, leaving in 1994 to contest and win a race for state insurance commissioner, the first Democrat elected to that position in a hundred years. She achieved this distinction while at the same time refusing campaign contributions from the insurance industry, and later blocked a proposed merger of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas with an Indiana firm, the first time the corporation had ever been repelled.
She ran for Governor in 2002, defeating Republican Tim Shallenburger by eight-points, and won re-election by a landslide seventeen-point margin four years later, all in a state where only 27% of voters are registered as Democrats. This is made possible by her wide demographic support, including the approval of 49% of Republicans, 44% of conservatives, and a whopping 78% of moderates. This wide support has not been won by weak leadership on progressive issues.
In 2006, Sebelius fought for and won an additional $500 million for the funding of Kansas public schools (out of a total budget outlay of only $12 billion), while at the same time eliminating a $1.1 billion budget deficit she inherited from her predecessor. She achieved this victory against an opposition legislature and without a tax increase. She is a stalwart defender of abortion rights, the only one on the shortlist, and vetoed legislation to restrict abortions in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008. She is also, however, personally pro-life, and during her tenure as governor has instituted policies which reduced abortions by 12.6%.
Sebelius made it clear early on that environmental concerns were at the top of her list of priorities, and has vetoed bills authorizing the construction of coal-fired power plants on three separate occasions. She has repeatedly opposed conceal-and-carry laws and attempts to alter the Kansas State Constitution to ban gay marriage. She is also an opponent of capital punishment. In short, she retains progressive values and positions while still attracting voters who are largely ambivalent about Democrats.
A major strike against Sebelius, however is she does nothing to deflect criticisms of Obama as too inexperienced on security and foreign policy issues. She will also almost certainly be unable to deliver her state on November 4, and women voters swept up into the personality cult of Hillary might be resistant to a female nominee who is not their girl, though as far as I can tell there has been no opinion polling done on this subject (though you can be sure Obama is testing this).
In conclusion, Sebelius presents a compelling case to be nominated to the ticket. Her progressive credentials highlight the "change" message the Democrats are trying to run on this year, and her popularity among moderates and conservatives mirrors that of her potential running mate. She is a risky pick, no doubt, but one that I suspect could pay enormous dividends in the fall.
On The Georgian Conflict
Politico has an excellent article up about the dichotomy between the statements released by the Obama and McCain campaigns regarding the Georgian Conflict. Obama has responded by condemning the violence and counseling talks, in much the same way as NATO, the EU, and even the White House reacted. McCain, on the other hand, has struck a much more aggressive position, aligning America's interests with those of Georgia in a diplomatic counter-weight to an emergent imperial Russia.
When taken in context with Mr. McCain's previously stated desire to remove Russia from the G-8, this indicates a willingness and perhaps even eagerness to resume the kind of adversarial relationship we maintained with the USSR in previous decades. While it is easy and tempting to argue the moral hazard of appeasement, it seems unwise in our current strategic environment to invite this particular fight.
For starters, it's not entirely clear that Russia is solely responsible for the outbreak of violence. There has been aggressive maneuvering on both sides for weeks, and the Russian invasion of Georgia only began after an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council failed to resolve the Georgian military incursion into South Ossetia. Another meeting earlier today again failed to produce a cease-fire agreement, and it appears that Georgia is withdrawing its contingent of troops from Iraq to deal with the crisis at home.
But even assuming the unimpeachable moral righteousness of the Georgian position, it makes little strategic sense to align ourselves against the Russians. Our military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan have spread us too thin to effectively counter Russian aggression, and we need Russian cooperation to reach agreements on sanctions against Iran, and to help counterbalance an emerging China. Striking a pose diametrically opposed to the Russians, especially when we currently lack the leverage to back it up, will only further weaken us at this juncture.
McCain's tough approach to diplomatic relations lacks the nuance that the multi-polar 21st century world requires. Should he be elected the next president, there is little reason to believe that his foreign policy instincts would stray that far from the current administration's.
UPDATE: The Obama campaign has issued a statement more pointedly condemning Russia and laying the primary blame for the conflict on them. While still not as fierce as McCain, Obama's new position is visibly more hawkish than his earlier one, suggesting he's worried about getting out-tough-guyed on this issue.
When taken in context with Mr. McCain's previously stated desire to remove Russia from the G-8, this indicates a willingness and perhaps even eagerness to resume the kind of adversarial relationship we maintained with the USSR in previous decades. While it is easy and tempting to argue the moral hazard of appeasement, it seems unwise in our current strategic environment to invite this particular fight.
For starters, it's not entirely clear that Russia is solely responsible for the outbreak of violence. There has been aggressive maneuvering on both sides for weeks, and the Russian invasion of Georgia only began after an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council failed to resolve the Georgian military incursion into South Ossetia. Another meeting earlier today again failed to produce a cease-fire agreement, and it appears that Georgia is withdrawing its contingent of troops from Iraq to deal with the crisis at home.
But even assuming the unimpeachable moral righteousness of the Georgian position, it makes little strategic sense to align ourselves against the Russians. Our military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan have spread us too thin to effectively counter Russian aggression, and we need Russian cooperation to reach agreements on sanctions against Iran, and to help counterbalance an emerging China. Striking a pose diametrically opposed to the Russians, especially when we currently lack the leverage to back it up, will only further weaken us at this juncture.
McCain's tough approach to diplomatic relations lacks the nuance that the multi-polar 21st century world requires. Should he be elected the next president, there is little reason to believe that his foreign policy instincts would stray that far from the current administration's.
UPDATE: The Obama campaign has issued a statement more pointedly condemning Russia and laying the primary blame for the conflict on them. While still not as fierce as McCain, Obama's new position is visibly more hawkish than his earlier one, suggesting he's worried about getting out-tough-guyed on this issue.
The New Social Security
What about something like this: upon retirement at age 68, we require most large companies to supply a pension worth 80% net income at the time of retirement. After seven years, the government will take over one-third of that burden, and after 14 years, two-thirds. After the age of 89, the government takes over full responsibility for the support of the retiree until death parts them.
There would of course be income caps on the pension, as well as procedural tests of supplemental income to weed out the independently wealthy, and the actual ages and percentages could be tweaked to optimality. But this plan encompasses all the advantages and moral arguments of a private pension plan, while reducing the burden on the private sector of a life-expectancy rate that keeps climbing.
Thoughts?
There would of course be income caps on the pension, as well as procedural tests of supplemental income to weed out the independently wealthy, and the actual ages and percentages could be tweaked to optimality. But this plan encompasses all the advantages and moral arguments of a private pension plan, while reducing the burden on the private sector of a life-expectancy rate that keeps climbing.
Thoughts?
Friday, August 8, 2008
Now THAT's the Veepstakes
Here's a quick question: with so much speculation about the fury a Sebelius nomination would ignite amongst Hillary supporters, why is no one actually polling on this question? Put another way: first person to find me a poll gets to be the first name on the Wall of Fame.
A Double Standard?
Marc Ambinder posed an interesting question today regarding the media's treatment of Sen. McCain when it comes to questions of ethical impropriety. While it's not clear if this type of activity is even illegal, it's hard to imagine a report that a Jordanian national named Mustafa Abu Naba'a had been bundling donations for Obama would draw this little attention from the press. It makes you wonder if all the bias accusations the McCain campaign has been hurling have had their intended effect.
The Political Death of John Edwards
So I'm hardly the first, second, or three-hundredth person to post this, but I nonetheless thought it was worth comment. The ethical questions of marital infidelity aside, probably the most disturbing aspect of this melodrama is the fact that Edwards knew full well this would come out when he decided to run this year. Had he won the nomination, the Democratic Party would be facing extreme embarrassment and almost insurmountable odds in a year that greatly favors them.
Even if Edwards thought he would make the best President of the bunch, he had to have known he was never going to get that far. By choosing to run as a ticking time-bomb, John Edwards placed his ego above the interests of his family, his party, and his country. This may be a nation of second-chances, but in my opinion, his political career is over.
Even if Edwards thought he would make the best President of the bunch, he had to have known he was never going to get that far. By choosing to run as a ticking time-bomb, John Edwards placed his ego above the interests of his family, his party, and his country. This may be a nation of second-chances, but in my opinion, his political career is over.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Fare and Balanced
Fox News has this up as their top headline right now:
I guess when you promote single-minded ideology and blind loyalty over other attributes like talent and competence, you end up with a journalistic staff that doesn't know the difference between "heals" and "heels." This is just the sort of thing that brought down the Justice Department. Good to know it's contagious.
UPDATE: It's now 7:14 p.m. the next day, and FoxNews.com has yet to fix this. I posted a comment to the article, calling them fascists and pointing out their error. They deleted my comment, but neglected to correct the mistake. How perfectly typical.
I guess when you promote single-minded ideology and blind loyalty over other attributes like talent and competence, you end up with a journalistic staff that doesn't know the difference between "heals" and "heels." This is just the sort of thing that brought down the Justice Department. Good to know it's contagious.UPDATE: It's now 7:14 p.m. the next day, and FoxNews.com has yet to fix this. I posted a comment to the article, calling them fascists and pointing out their error. They deleted my comment, but neglected to correct the mistake. How perfectly typical.
Bill Clinton To Speak At The Convention
CNN is reporting that Bill Clinton will give an address Wednesday night at the Democratic Convention, the same night the VP nominee is set to speak. They also indicate that Clinton was personally asked by the presumptive nominee during a phone conversation earlier this afternoon. More soon...
UPDATE: The Clinton intransigence can sometimes be quite breath-taking. Earlier this week, the former president refused to be pinned into declaring Obama "qualified" to be president, instead responding to a question from ABC reporter Kate Snow, "you could argue no one's ever ready to be president." [ABC News, 8/4/08] Days later, he secures a prime-time slot at the nominating convention while his wife simultaneously negotiates her own nomination and roll call vote as a means of achieving the ever elusive "party unity." It's beginning to look the convention may not be a repeat of 2004's stage-managed coronation.
UPDATE: The Clinton intransigence can sometimes be quite breath-taking. Earlier this week, the former president refused to be pinned into declaring Obama "qualified" to be president, instead responding to a question from ABC reporter Kate Snow, "you could argue no one's ever ready to be president." [ABC News, 8/4/08] Days later, he secures a prime-time slot at the nominating convention while his wife simultaneously negotiates her own nomination and roll call vote as a means of achieving the ever elusive "party unity." It's beginning to look the convention may not be a repeat of 2004's stage-managed coronation.
The VP Lotto: Tim Kaine
It's time for round two of VP Lotto, and this time Virgina Governor Tim Kaine is up for review. His name has been ranked very high on the shortlist, presumably because of his early and enthusiastic support of Senator Obama, and the strategic benefits of putting a southern swing-state governor on the ticket. While there are many upsides to his potential candidacy, he presents by far the weakest resume of the four finalists.
On the positive side, Gov. Kaine is a deeply religious Catholic, a member of the Society of Jesus (the Jesuits), and a former missionary to Honduras. He is fluent in Spanish, which could theoretically help increase Sen. Obama's share of the Latino vote. Probably the biggest prize he brings to the ticket, however, is his blend of demographic support. While his support is above fifty percent in nearly every demographic, he boasts even broader support among voters over sixty-five (63%) and moderates (67%), two groups whose support has eluded Obama. He has won the approval of both whites and Hispanics (58% and 55% respectively) and even draws a 42% approval rating from self-identified conservatives. In short, he is widely admired among key demographics that Obama must carry if he is to win the White House.
On the other hand, most of the advantages he brings to the table could easily be turned against him. His defining Catholic faith is only an advantage among the 0.002% of people for whom a biblical world-view is a prerequisite for support, but who don't require that world-view to be also protestant and fundamentalist. His fluency in Spanish and closeness to the Latino community may hurt the cause as much as it could help it (Obama already leads comfortably among Hispanics), and his early loyalty to Obama may inflame Clinton supporters looking for one of their own on the ticket.
Additionally, an Obama/Kaine ticket would be among the youngest and most inexperienced in the history of the union. As recently as two years ago, Kaine was no more than the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, having served before that as Richmond Mayor and City Council member. Obama and Kaine have between the two of them just two years of executive experience and four years on the national scene. If McCain manages to turn the tide on the Change vs. Experience sentiment, an Obama/Kaine ticket could be in serious trouble.
Finally, it is not at all difficult to use Gov. Kaine's principled and nuanced positions against him. He supports mandatory vaccination against HPV for girls as young as eleven, closing loopholes in gun laws, and has lobbied for several tax increases during his gubernatorial term. He is on the record as personally opposing the death penalty (though he has overseen several executions as governor), and has fought against a constitutional ban on gay marriage. Finally, he supports more stringent regulation of abortions, something else that is likely to set Hillary supporters on fire. All of this might make him a much greater drag on the ticket than the thirteen electoral votes he might be able to deliver.
In conclusion, while Gov. Kaine possesses some of the attributes that might one day make him a desirable vice-presidential or even presidential candidate, his lack of experience and positions on the issues makes him a poor match for this nominee. Shortlisted or not, I don't think this is going to end up being Kaine's year. At least I hope not.
Wherever She Is, You Know She's Laughing
Back when we saw it in March, we all knew it'd be back. Today, the McCain campaign released an ad composed entirely of soundbites wherein a string of well-known Democrats compliment John McCain personally and politically. Saving the best for last, the video ends with Hillary's famous crypto-endorsement:
"[John McCain] will put forth his lifetime of experience. I will put forth my lifetime of experience. Senator Obama will put forth a speech he made in 2002." [CBS News, 3/1/08]The DNC has released a retort in which all the same Dems talk some smack about McCain, but no response of this variety is ever going to compare with the second-most famous Democrat in America calling out the party's nominee. Between the re-opening of this wound and yesterday's fiasco, this isn't working out to be a great week for party unity. I suppose there's always Friday.
Close Results From Oregon
A new SurveyUSA poll (August 2-4, 629 LV) shows John McCain within the margin or error in Oregon:
Obama (D) 48 (n/c)
McCain (R) 45 (n/c)
Other 5 (+5)
Undecided 2 (-5)
The basic math remains unchanged from a previous survey in mid to late June. It makes you wonder if Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is really so prescient to be running this close to his party's opponent.
Obama (D) 48 (n/c)
McCain (R) 45 (n/c)
Other 5 (+5)
Undecided 2 (-5)
The basic math remains unchanged from a previous survey in mid to late June. It makes you wonder if Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is really so prescient to be running this close to his party's opponent.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Phoning It In
With such a heavy focus on rapid-response and messaging discipline in the modern world of YouTube, campaigns often have little time to studio produce counter-ads before the news cycle ends. This has led to some extremely generic ads that amount to little more than b-roll of gas pumps and windmills stamped with poll-tested slogans and talking-points, all arranged over vaguely patriotic muzak and throaty vocals. The elements are all interchangeable, and there is often little that distinguishes one spot from another. I don't mean to imply that the political ad game was ever an art form, but a lot of what's come out this year has been pretty lame by any standard.
She Wouldn't...
If anyone thought the tensions within the Democratic Party had eased since the end of the primaries, a media-driven flap today brought some of the old bitterness to the surface. It seems Clinton has indicated in comments to supporters that she is interested in having her name placed on the first ballot for nomination, which has fanned the flames of those clamoring for her to fight on. This story broke the same day as another claiming Clinton is still highly skeptical that Obama can win the Presidency. The Obama and Clinton campaign have issued an unusual joint "unity" statement attempting to calm the dust-up before it gets out of control, but the fact that such a statement is necessary speaks to the deep rifts that remain in the party.
'Original'
And Obama strikes back:
This one is actually pretty effective, I think. What do you think?
This one is actually pretty effective, I think. What do you think?
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Can we get some of that over here?!
The New York Times is reporting that the Iraqi government will have accumulated a nearly $80 billion budget surplus by year's end, driven primarily by petroleum exports. This has already elicited bipartisan shock and outrage, considering the fact that we are outspending the Iraqis almost six to one on post-war reconstruction. Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner summed it up nicely:
"It is inexcusable for U.S. taxpayers to continue to foot the bill for projects the Iraqis are fully capable of funding themselves. We should not be paying for Iraqi projects, while Iraqi oil revenues continue to pile up in the bank." [NY Times, 8/6/08]We are basically rebuilding their country as ours falls apart, while they sit on a pile of treasure accumulated by selling us $4 a gallon gas. This will surely re-ignite the debate regarding whether or not the Iraqis really need our assistance, or rather are relying on us to foot the bill while they fight amongst themselves. My crystal ball predicts that Obama will be talking tomorrow about what we could do with $80 billion on this side of the world.
The VP Lotto: Evan Bayh
Rumor has it that the Obama shortlist has been pared down to just four names: Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. I'm going to try and post a mini-profile of each of their hypothetical candidacies before the end of next week, or Obama selects someone, whichever comes first. Up today is the Junior Senator from Indiana.
Senator Obama was set to arrive in South Bend about three hours ago, and isn't scheduled to leave until after 3:30 tomorrow. The primary event he has scheduled is a town hall meeting in Elkhart, where he is set to be introduced by Sen. Bayh. This twenty-one hour swing-state marathon has set the local press ablaze with speculation that their hometown boy is going to be The One's One.
To a large degree, Obama couldn't have a more obvious choice. You can go down the line of criteria for an Obama pick and check the boxes off with me: he supported Hillary Clinton during the primaries, is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has served as both a Senator and Governor, and has been in politics long enough to gain experience, but not too long to be seen as an old hand. In terms of defusing criticism from the right, Obama could hardly do better.
While it is chic during the Veepstakes portion of an election summer to talk about a potential running mate bringing in a swing state, this sort of electoral math is usually all hype with no hope. Bayh may present an interesting exception. In a state that Obama has already put in play, Bayh left office as governor with a nearly 80% approval rating, and was elected to his Senate seat with the highest percentage of the vote that a Indiana Democrat has ever received. The Bayh family has long been a staple of Indiana government; if anyone can hand deliver a swing-state this year, it's him.
On the other hand, Bayh served as Chair of the Democratic Leadership Council from 2001 to 2005, and is in many ways a centrist noticably to the right of Senator Obama. He is a fiscal conservative and the man behind the largest tax cut in Indiana history. He was an early and vocal supporter of the 2003 Iraq invasion, and still has yet to renounce that support. A candidate running on the mantle of "against the war from the beginning" is going to look a little silly with a running-mate who refers to a sixteen-month exit strategy as "cut-and-run."
Iraq is not the only arena in which Mr. Bayh's hawkish instincts are revealed. From his strong, almost Likudist disdain for the Palastinian Authority to his support of the Liberman-Kyl amendment to decree the Iranian Quds to be a terrorist organization (a position taken by Senator Clinton that Obama roundly criticized), Bayh's foreign policy positions have more in common with McCain's than they do with Obama's. Trade is one of the few international topics they agree on, and only because Bayh is in the center and Obama as usual is on both sides.
Finally, there is the nagging fact that Bayh isn't up for re-election this year, and if the Obama/Bayh ticket was a winner, the job of appointing a Senatorial replacement would fall to Republican Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Putting Bayh on the ticket would require sacrificing a Senate seat in a year where a sixty-seat filibuster-proof majority, while highly unlikely, is at least within plausible reach. Waking up on November 5th to an Obama landslide and a 59-seat Democratic Senate majority would look awfully stupid.
A Bayh selection would indicate that Obama has greater worries about attracting independents than he does retaining Democrats, though Bayh also goes a good way toward appeasing Clinton partisans. He's the "safe" pick this time around, and if he is chosen that means that all politics aside, Obama is more concerned with the polling he's looking at than he appears. Bayh is the current favorite on the Intrade Prediction Market, and for good reason. A perennial shortlister, this might finally be his year.
Senator Obama was set to arrive in South Bend about three hours ago, and isn't scheduled to leave until after 3:30 tomorrow. The primary event he has scheduled is a town hall meeting in Elkhart, where he is set to be introduced by Sen. Bayh. This twenty-one hour swing-state marathon has set the local press ablaze with speculation that their hometown boy is going to be The One's One.
To a large degree, Obama couldn't have a more obvious choice. You can go down the line of criteria for an Obama pick and check the boxes off with me: he supported Hillary Clinton during the primaries, is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has served as both a Senator and Governor, and has been in politics long enough to gain experience, but not too long to be seen as an old hand. In terms of defusing criticism from the right, Obama could hardly do better.
While it is chic during the Veepstakes portion of an election summer to talk about a potential running mate bringing in a swing state, this sort of electoral math is usually all hype with no hope. Bayh may present an interesting exception. In a state that Obama has already put in play, Bayh left office as governor with a nearly 80% approval rating, and was elected to his Senate seat with the highest percentage of the vote that a Indiana Democrat has ever received. The Bayh family has long been a staple of Indiana government; if anyone can hand deliver a swing-state this year, it's him.
On the other hand, Bayh served as Chair of the Democratic Leadership Council from 2001 to 2005, and is in many ways a centrist noticably to the right of Senator Obama. He is a fiscal conservative and the man behind the largest tax cut in Indiana history. He was an early and vocal supporter of the 2003 Iraq invasion, and still has yet to renounce that support. A candidate running on the mantle of "against the war from the beginning" is going to look a little silly with a running-mate who refers to a sixteen-month exit strategy as "cut-and-run."
Iraq is not the only arena in which Mr. Bayh's hawkish instincts are revealed. From his strong, almost Likudist disdain for the Palastinian Authority to his support of the Liberman-Kyl amendment to decree the Iranian Quds to be a terrorist organization (a position taken by Senator Clinton that Obama roundly criticized), Bayh's foreign policy positions have more in common with McCain's than they do with Obama's. Trade is one of the few international topics they agree on, and only because Bayh is in the center and Obama as usual is on both sides.
Finally, there is the nagging fact that Bayh isn't up for re-election this year, and if the Obama/Bayh ticket was a winner, the job of appointing a Senatorial replacement would fall to Republican Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Putting Bayh on the ticket would require sacrificing a Senate seat in a year where a sixty-seat filibuster-proof majority, while highly unlikely, is at least within plausible reach. Waking up on November 5th to an Obama landslide and a 59-seat Democratic Senate majority would look awfully stupid.
A Bayh selection would indicate that Obama has greater worries about attracting independents than he does retaining Democrats, though Bayh also goes a good way toward appeasing Clinton partisans. He's the "safe" pick this time around, and if he is chosen that means that all politics aside, Obama is more concerned with the polling he's looking at than he appears. Bayh is the current favorite on the Intrade Prediction Market, and for good reason. A perennial shortlister, this might finally be his year.
The Suskind Allegation
The blogosphere is rumbling about a new book by Pulitzer prize-winning author Ron Suskind in which he alleges that the White House ordered the CIA to forge a document later used to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq. If true, this action constitutes deliberate fraud in a way that cannot be dismissed as merely "bad intelligence." Both the White House and then-CIA Director George Tenet have denied the validity of the story, and even though it has long been suspected that outright fraud played a role in selling the invasion, this particular accusation is not without its problems. Still, it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Race Poker
By now you know the story. During a public appearance last Wednesday, Senator Obama suggested that GOP operatives looking for a weakness might try to exploit unease about his race. Hours later the McCain campaign, sensing weakness, successfully exploited unease regarding Senator Obama's race. Column inches being what they are, I won't go into a detailed examination of the way McCain boxed Obama in, but there is a great summary of the basic idea here.
The statement that John McCain has run a campaign completely free of racial hijinks is premised upon the ludicrous idea that a campaign extends only as far as its press releases, position papers, and public appearances. This assertion is demonstrably false.
The hatchet men of the twenty-first century know ads like Celeb are just the public face of a successful smear campaign, artfully crafted and subtly wrought distillations of the all-important Message. But because Celeb uses subliminal symbols and imagery to make its crude point, this sort of mildly suggestive messaging has natural limits. Sure, a few people might see Britney Spears next to Obama and have a little flash of anger in their miscegenist hearts, but most people cackle when it's suggested to them that there is anything racial about such a spot.
Sure, you might swing a few hundredths of a percent with a multi-million dollar ad campaign proclaiming “Obama is Effete,” but where you really start to move numbers is with a ten-sentence free email titled “Obama is Muslim.” Here is the shady realm of the “push poll,” the mysterious calls in the middle of the night asking you to support Obama's dream of using tax dollars from hard working Americans to fund slavery reparations for welfare queens.
McCain is more than familiar with this kind of whisper campaign; he was buried by one in South Carolina eight years ago. His willingness to employ the same kinds of tactics against his current opponent tells us two things. First, McCain wants this victory in the "worst way," the way he claims he didn't in 2000. And second, the demise of the Rovian hyper-organization that has defined the GOP in recent years has been greatly exaggerated. We're in for a fun few months.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
The GOP's Heroic Gas Protest
While all of you were paying attention to Brett Favre dropping an ugly asterisk onto the end of his career, the House GOP has been putting on a three-ring circus on the floor of the Capitol. After the House adjourned for their summer recess at 11:23 a.m. on Friday, a number of the Republican House members who had voted against the adjournment refused to leave the floor and began a quasi-protest against the moratorium on coastal oil drilling.
What started out as a group of about six legislators bashing the Democrats in front of an empty chamber became by the by a raucous party where Congressmen were standing on chairs, parading photographs held high above their heads around the chamber, and inviting guests down onto the House floor to sit in the seats and watch the festivities. Even normally bland local boy Don Manzullo got the spirit.
Ostensibly, the point of the stunt was to bring focus to the Democrats' decision to go on vacation while gas is still nearly $4 a gallon, which is an interesting criticism coming from members of the most astoundingly lazy and inept legislature in the history of the Republic. Still, it was a surprisingly good visual for the Republican Party in a year that has not treated them kindly. They were apparently so pleased with themselves that they have scheduled an encore for Monday.
This sort of pseudo-populist nonsense is what has allowed the GOP to compete in an environment where they are methodically impoverishing those from whom they seek the most loyal and enthusiastic support. It's hardly original, merely a more organic extension of the rousing speeches Newt Gingrich and his cohorts used to give to the C-SPAN cameras after everyone had left for the day.
Stuck running in an environment toxic to their agenda, Republicans have resorted to some pretty strange tactics in order to keep their heads above water. You have to go no further than Senator McCain's latest ads Celeb and The One to see the sort of smears that are being battle-tested in lieu of any substantive avenue of attack. If the field doesn't improve for the party soon, it will be interesting to see where we are by October.
At the same time, it's important to note that what seemed bizarre and harmless back in 1988 had by 1994 become the much more compelling "Contract with America," the pseudo-populist messaging vehicle that drove the Republican Revolution. So while these cheap shots and veiled insinuations may be somewhat exotic and amusing now, it will be interesting to see what they look like after two years of polishing, in 2010.
What started out as a group of about six legislators bashing the Democrats in front of an empty chamber became by the by a raucous party where Congressmen were standing on chairs, parading photographs held high above their heads around the chamber, and inviting guests down onto the House floor to sit in the seats and watch the festivities. Even normally bland local boy Don Manzullo got the spirit.
Ostensibly, the point of the stunt was to bring focus to the Democrats' decision to go on vacation while gas is still nearly $4 a gallon, which is an interesting criticism coming from members of the most astoundingly lazy and inept legislature in the history of the Republic. Still, it was a surprisingly good visual for the Republican Party in a year that has not treated them kindly. They were apparently so pleased with themselves that they have scheduled an encore for Monday.
This sort of pseudo-populist nonsense is what has allowed the GOP to compete in an environment where they are methodically impoverishing those from whom they seek the most loyal and enthusiastic support. It's hardly original, merely a more organic extension of the rousing speeches Newt Gingrich and his cohorts used to give to the C-SPAN cameras after everyone had left for the day.
Stuck running in an environment toxic to their agenda, Republicans have resorted to some pretty strange tactics in order to keep their heads above water. You have to go no further than Senator McCain's latest ads Celeb and The One to see the sort of smears that are being battle-tested in lieu of any substantive avenue of attack. If the field doesn't improve for the party soon, it will be interesting to see where we are by October.
At the same time, it's important to note that what seemed bizarre and harmless back in 1988 had by 1994 become the much more compelling "Contract with America," the pseudo-populist messaging vehicle that drove the Republican Revolution. So while these cheap shots and veiled insinuations may be somewhat exotic and amusing now, it will be interesting to see what they look like after two years of polishing, in 2010.
Hello
My name is Erich, and as the info bar says, I am a twenty-six year old Accounts Receivable "technician" for a small bottled-water company in Rockford, IL. I went to college, partially to prove that it was worthless but mostly to earn a degree in Political Science. I succeeded admirably in both regards. I am married, the father of a fine daughter, and generally split my time equally between bitching about the Democrats and eating fried crap. I can also do these things simultaneously.
This, "Accounts Political," is my first blog and this, "Hello," is my first post. Before I got married, when I was splitting my time equally between bitching about the Democrats and bitching about women, I did an awful lot of writing, generally on those topics. It was all crap, but at least I didn't show it to anyone. Flash-forward to the twenty-first century. It has since become popular to take the same sort of garbage I hammered out in hippie coffees hops on Brady Street and post it for the world to see. So now I'm a blogger.
I'm going to try to keep this mostly about politics, though it's entirely possible I'll end up failing in that goal and talking incessantly about "Lost" or something. I hope to post every few days, more if the news warrants it, less if I've got crap to do. I also intend to do some very limited live-blogging, probably only during the Presidential Debates and Election Night. Which means I'll probably post a lot when there's nothing going on and immediately stop whenever the news starts coming in. If it's good enough for the New York Times, it's good enough for me.
Finally, it wouldn't right to start out this blog without a shout-out to Above His Shoulders, a new memoir I had a small part in crafting over the course of the previous year. You should go check out the site. And if you want an autographed copy, I can like totally hook that up for you. Ok. Catch you all later.
This, "Accounts Political," is my first blog and this, "Hello," is my first post. Before I got married, when I was splitting my time equally between bitching about the Democrats and bitching about women, I did an awful lot of writing, generally on those topics. It was all crap, but at least I didn't show it to anyone. Flash-forward to the twenty-first century. It has since become popular to take the same sort of garbage I hammered out in hippie coffees hops on Brady Street and post it for the world to see. So now I'm a blogger.
I'm going to try to keep this mostly about politics, though it's entirely possible I'll end up failing in that goal and talking incessantly about "Lost" or something. I hope to post every few days, more if the news warrants it, less if I've got crap to do. I also intend to do some very limited live-blogging, probably only during the Presidential Debates and Election Night. Which means I'll probably post a lot when there's nothing going on and immediately stop whenever the news starts coming in. If it's good enough for the New York Times, it's good enough for me.
Finally, it wouldn't right to start out this blog without a shout-out to Above His Shoulders, a new memoir I had a small part in crafting over the course of the previous year. You should go check out the site. And if you want an autographed copy, I can like totally hook that up for you. Ok. Catch you all later.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Posts
