We Apologize For The Inconvenience

This site is experiencing technical difficulties. Ok. That's not accurate, as you can probably tell. What I meant was this: the power supply from my notebook computer has bitten the dust, and as a result, the only Internet access I have is at work, and using that for personal (they don't exactly consider this blog professional) activities is expressly prohibited by office policy. I have already been reminded of this policy. Several times.

The upshot of this mess is that in the middle of the convention, I am going to be largely unable to add new posts at this time. I have a new power supply on order, and will return to the posting scene as soon as Best Buy ships it. I apologize for the inconvenience, and hope you'll keep checking back. I won't be gone for long. Count on it.

She Can Bring It

She did it. That was the most that anyone could ask of her. If you didn't see it, watch Hillary's speech to the convention tonight. It is on par with anything Obama has ever delivered, and she delivered it in his honor convincingly. Her endorsement was powerful and eloquent, and any Clinton supporters not swayed by her argument must be considered unreachable and forgotten.

I never thought I'd be gushing about Hillary Clinton, but jeez, if she'da brought it like that in the primaries, she'd a owned him. Man, terrific.

The Convention: Night One

Last night was the opening night of the Convention, and for what it was supposed to be, it seemed to come off quite well. There were no really big stars, no particularly relevant players (Nancy Pelosi spoke, but it isn't as if Obama has been cozying up to her; there's a reason she got stuck early on Monday evening). The main goal of the evening seemed to be making Michelle Obama seem less like a combination of Stokely Carmichael and the alien from Predator, and more like...well...Cindy McCain.

Forgetting for a moment that Michelle Obama has never come off as threatening or un-American other than in GOP attacks, she succeeded admirably in her goal. The introduction by her brother was authentic and heartfelt, and the mini-documentary narrated by her mother did a good job of expanding on the idea that both Barack and Michelle came from largely humble backgrounds, very much like Joe Biden and unlike either John or Cindy McCain.

Michelle's speech was expertly delivered; she's nearly as good at this as he is. She came off as warm, charming, confident, and intelligent, the very qualities a First Lady is expected to project. After the speech, when her kids joined her on-stage to say goodnight to their father via live feed from Missouri, the shades of Jack Kennedy were hard not to notice. The family looked undeniably happy, young, vibrant, and American. Last night will definitely make them harder to smear.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, following a tribute to his life and career, made a symbolic "passing the torch" type speech that seemed to me at least merely to hew to expectations. Nancy Pelosi, as always, was droning and uninspiring. I do not deny that she and Harry Reid are expert legislators (no wait, I do deny that), but they make for lousy party leaders. As she walked off stage, the only thing I could think about was how glad I am that she won't be the face of the Democratic Leadership for too much longer.

Of course, not everyone agrees with me. James Carville was unhappy that the Democrats used airtime to do anything other than ridicule McCain, while David Brooks was unhappy that there was any ridiculing done, believing instead that the Democrats should have spent the evening talking about what a "good man" John McCain is. William Kristol, shockingly, was unimpressed.

Tonight ought to be some fun. It's night one of the Clinton Spectacle, starring Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, fresh off his not-unifying media-bashing yesterday, and finally, the vanquished Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Obama people have tried to take the spotlight off her performance by scheduling Kathleen Sebelius, Deval Patrick, and Keynote Speaker Mark Warner the same evening. Yeah, I bet that works out well for them.

I guess we're about to find out.

The Next Next President

One thing that hasn't gotten a lot of discussion in the media is the bearing that Biden's selection will have on the Democratic Primary contest in 2016, should Sen. Obama win two terms in office. It is widely accepted that at age 73, Biden would choose not to seek the Democratic nomination eight years from now, leading to a situation where there is no heir apparent in the party.

Critics have charged that this would lead to another bloodbath, a competitive primary challenge where a couple top-tier contenders and four or five second-level entrants battle each other for the crown. There is a lot of conventional wisdom out there that indicates such an outcome would be terrible, a replay of 1968 or 2008, where internecine divisions are opened up and violent exchanges in March and April leave open wounds in September and October.

But the other side of the coin is that by selecting Biden, Obama has left the primary voters in charge of selecting a new leader in eight years. Joe Biden is a good guy, but there's no real reason to believe that the issue-set and temperament he brings to the table, valuable in 2008, will be equally fresh almost a decade down the road. Nominating Evan Bayh would have given him a leg up in 2016, when he'd only be sixty or so. But if the issue of the day in 2016 happens to be the environment, or the Republicans nominate a charismatic talker, then that advantage for the candidate would really be a disadvantage to the party.

By putting the selection of the next next-President into the hands of voters, where it belongs, Obama made the decision to wait until the electoral landscape was more clearly defined to select an heir. This is a decision that I believe will be beneficial in the long run, even if it results in a few bumps and scrapes the next time around.

Inch by Inch, Poll by Poll...

There have been some interesting Senate polls released in the last few days, leaving open the possibility of winning a sixty-seat Democratic majority. First, from the Land of 10,000 Lakes, a Minnesota Public Radio poll (August 7-17, 763 LV) shows Al Franken up one point on incumbent Republican Norm Coleman:

Franken (D) 41 (-2)
Coleman (R) 40 (n/c)

This is one of the first surveys to show the comedian and Air America host ahead. There's another unusual result in from North Carolina, where InsiderAdvantage (August 19, 614 LV) has Democratic challenger Kay Hagan locked in a dead heat with Senator Elizabeth Dole:

Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 40

Obama may seem to be having trouble in recent surveys, but Sen. Chuck Schumer's DSCC effort is beginning to pay off. Picking up these two seats would bring us closer to a filibuster-proof majority, meaning that we would only need an upset in Maine and another in Oregon to reach the ultimate goal. At this point, it's still highly unlikely, but these numbers are an encouraging sign.

The Biden Roll-Out: A Retrospective

Now that the ridiculousness is over, I'd like to take a moment to reflect back upon the genius of Obama's week-long VP extravaganza. I feel obligated to do this because of the many critical comments I made toward the end of last week as it became apparent Obama was not going to announce until the weekend. I felt, and repeatedly opined that announcing on the weekend, leaving only a Sunday before Denver, foolishly compressed the event and reduced its visibility. I once again failed to give proper credit to Obama's people, who engineered a press spectacle that will be studied for generations.

By the time Friday afternoon rolled around, the weekday press had realized they were not going to get the first crack at the story, and started spinning ever more hysterical theories as to who the nominee would be. Chet Edwards and Hillary Clinton suddenly rocketed to the forefront of the echo chamber as camera crews camped out in the front yard of Evan Bayh's Indiana residence.

As Friday afternoon ended and evening set in, the weekday media signed off and the twenty-four hour cable news took over. We were treated to endless clips of "journalists" checking their BlackBerrys and reporting that nothing has changed. As the night wore on, a steady stream of leaks kept the conversation current. First, sources inside Gov. Kaine's office reported he was called and told it wasn't him. Then Bayh's office confirmed that he was out of the running. Five minutes later, Bayh's front lawn was dark and vacant, and the Indiana senator was thrust back into obscurity.

Marc Ambinder over at The Atlantic was the first to report on a charter flight from Chicago-Midway to New Castle, DE, speculating it was there perhaps to pick up a Veep nominee. Finally, ABC reported at around 10:50 p.m. that the U.S. Secret Service had been dispatched to Senator Biden's house. At 12:45 a.m., CNN confirmed that Biden had been selected, triggering the 3:00 a.m. text by the Obama camp, which had originally been scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET.

By drawing the revelation out until the last possible moment, the Obama camp took advantage of the 24-hour news cycle, forcing the reporting to become ever more urgent, with every non-development trumpeted as "game-changing." Given a single topic and nothing but time, CNN, MSNBC, and FoxNews went wild, lending greater stature to a mostly symbolic event. The publicity was intense and positive, and the relief following the revelation was profound. The Springfield rally the next day was almost a catharsis, a celebration of the end of the spectacle.

The Obama campaign turned what could have been seen as a "safe," uninspired choice into a media event that made Biden seem like the most important man in America. The Saturday announcement will transition across Sunday into the Monday Convention debut, blunting the kind of second-wave negativism that usually follows Veep announcements. The strategy was brilliantly planned and flawlessly executed; what remains to be seen is whether it will prove effective in the long-term.

The Great Unveiling

Photo by Erich DeLang

SPRINGFIELD, IL - And so it came to pass that on a summer's day, a crowd thirty-five thousand strong gathered to bear witness to the unveiling of the One's One, he who had also been chosen to wield the Flame of Change.

The AccountsPolitical team arrived in Springfield about 12:30, at which time the traffic in the downtown was fairly snarled. We were able to find parking perhaps eight blocks from the event site, and a quick walk brought us to the end of the security queue. The line passed along-side literally dozens of ad hoc souvenir and tee shirt booths, where barkers hocked Obama merchandise using liberal sales techniques. These included, "buy your union-made Obama tee shirts," and "Obama bead jewelery from Guatemala puts food on Mayan Indian tables."

The air was thick and still, the heat from the blazing sun and baking pavement drawing sweat almost immediately. There had been a call for isolated thunderstorms earlier in the day, but the weather ended up cooperating as well as could be expected in Southern Illinois in August. The Fire Department had opened up numerous mains and hydrants, powering misters and spray-showers. Children played in the streams of water, which ran lazily to the drains as the firemen sat passively and watched the ambling crowd.

Obama volunteers lined the corners, maintaining order, telling people to turn their electronics on and discard their bottles and other questionable possessions. As we drew nearer the security checkpoint, there appeared on the side of the walkway piles of bottles and umbrellas that had been discarded by the crowd, stacked on curbs and windowsills of abandoned store-fronts. Upon actually reaching the checkpoint, we were given the most cursory of inspections before being allowed into the barricaded viewing area.

The entire Old Capitol as well as the four streets surrounding it had been closed off by police, and were now packed to the bursting point with excited fans. Campaign volunteers and police were trying to herd the crowd away from the podium, where the mass had become dangerously compressed, but were largely unable to keep the crowd from pressing forward to the stage. Police and Secret Service personnel lined the rooftops of the buildings surrounding the square, watching over the crowd with binoculars and automatic weapons.

The crowd was extremely diverse, much more than I would have expected at this venue. There were the usual assortment of young idealists, but also a surprisingly large contingent of senior citizens with canes and in wheelchairs, braving the heat to watch the introduction of the Democratic Ticket. The crowd was black, white, brown, all gathered up and mixed together, baking in the sun.

At 2:00 on the dot, Springfield Mayor Timothy Davlin welcomed the everyone and introduced a Gold Star father, who led the crowd in the Pledge of Allegiance. He then introduced a reverend who gave the benediction. The reverend led the assembled mass in a VERY detailed and policy-oriented prayer. As he listed plank after plank of the Democratic Party Platform, boxes of newly minted Obama-Biden placards began traveling through the crowd. The good reverend then introduced the Junior Senator from Illinois.

Obama's entrance was marked, as always, by a raucous reaction. The hundred-degree heat did little to stifle their enthusiasm, and it was a good minute or two before Obama was able to begin his remarks. His introduction of Biden was warm and effusive, praising the six-term senator as "a statesman with sound judgement." Just before turning over the stage to Biden, Obama slipped and introduced him as "the next President," a line seized upon by the McCain campaign before the day was up.

Biden ran onstage from our side of the square, waving in all directions before embracing Obama as the crowd hoisted their placards high. After the applause died down, he spoke at length about hope for change and the direction he sees for this country. He did very well, touching upon his blue-collar background and his vast foreign policy experience. He went off-script at the end, referring to his "drop-dead gorgeous" wife, but all-in-all, he behaved himself remarkably well.

The crowd ate it up, and when he had finished, Obama rejoined him on the stage for round after round of thunderous applause. The feeling in the audience was one of great expectations. There is a lot of ground to cover between now and November 4th, but in the sun in that moment, the fresh-faced Obama and seasoned Biden looked every bit like the next President and Vice-President of the United States.