The message discipline of the Obama juggernaut is legendary in the political world. This is a campaign that started and ended with the same slogan (Change We Can Believe In) and the same campaign rallying cry (Yes, We Can), in an environment where their competitors were constantly re-tooling to try and adjust to conditions on the ground. Over the course of the campaign, McCain had so many slogans (Country First; Reform. Prosperity. Peace; A Cause Greater than Self; A Leader You Can Believe In) that it became difficult in the end to tell exactly what he was selling. Whether you think Obama was a phony or not, you knew what he claimed to stand for.
Beyond his grip on the campaign narrative on a news cycle by news cycle basis, the Obama campaign was notoriously effective at preventing leaks. There was little drama in the inner circle, and the loyalty top aides displayed to their leader was remarkable. The Biden unveiling was not picked up by any news organization until Obama released it himself, and there is even some belief that Biden didn't know until late in the evening the night he was named.
Which is why the dramatic leak-fest that was associated with the selection of Congressman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) to be the next White House Chief of Staff was so unexpected. First there was the Halloween leak that Emanuel was being considered; then, after the election, the leak that he had been asked. Unsure whether to accept, it leaked that Emanuel was "agonizing" over the decision. Finally, just hours before it was announced that he accepted, word leaked that he had. What happened? How did the Obama ship suddenly become the freaking Titanic?
Did I mention previously that Emanuel was a staffer in the Clinton White House?
This is just getting started. Let's hope he doesn't invite the whole circus to town.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
The Exit Polls: Shifting Electorate?
Now that it's been a few days, some of the larger news organizations are releasing the detailed cross-tabs for their exit polling operations, giving us a clearer idea of the makeup of the coalition that made the son of a Kenyan goatherd leader of the free world. Not surprisingly, the differences between the 2004 and 2008 numbers are dramatic, signalling a shift that could be construed as either reactive or tectonic.
Whereas John Kerry lost men and won women by a meager three points, Obama eked out a 1% margin among men and more than quadrupled Kerry's margin with women. Kerry lost voters 30 and older, while Obama won voters aged 18-59, only narrowly losing those sixty and older. Obama's performance with whites matched that of Bill Clinton's reelection run in 1996, which itself was the highest showing by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The only demographic where the Democrats lost ground from 2004 was in small towns, where Obama underperformed Kerry by barely 4%.
Some of the gains were dramatic. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in cities both big and small by ten points, increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, and led an astounding (if not quite shocking) 2-1 blowout among first time voters, besting Kerry to the tune of 16 points. If it turns out that these gains were largely the result of a referendum on Bush and the GOP in general, then it is entirely possible that Obama will be in for a real fight for reelection. But if even some of these gains are in any way durable, the GOP is staring down the long barrel of a very loaded gun.
Whereas John Kerry lost men and won women by a meager three points, Obama eked out a 1% margin among men and more than quadrupled Kerry's margin with women. Kerry lost voters 30 and older, while Obama won voters aged 18-59, only narrowly losing those sixty and older. Obama's performance with whites matched that of Bill Clinton's reelection run in 1996, which itself was the highest showing by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The only demographic where the Democrats lost ground from 2004 was in small towns, where Obama underperformed Kerry by barely 4%.
Some of the gains were dramatic. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in cities both big and small by ten points, increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, and led an astounding (if not quite shocking) 2-1 blowout among first time voters, besting Kerry to the tune of 16 points. If it turns out that these gains were largely the result of a referendum on Bush and the GOP in general, then it is entirely possible that Obama will be in for a real fight for reelection. But if even some of these gains are in any way durable, the GOP is staring down the long barrel of a very loaded gun.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Something Awry In Anchorage
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com is reporting of some extremely unusual voter trends in Alaska, trends that might shed some light on the surprise upset of Democrats Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz. It seems that Alaska turnout was actually down, in stark contrast to the rest of the country, to the tune of better than fourteen percent.
That's a dramatic decrease in statewide voter participation, in a year with an extremely close Senate race as well as the appearance of the highly popular governor as a candidate for the Vice-Presidency. Just as confusing is the fact that these voters consistently told pollsters that they intended to swing the other way. So, is this then some sort of "Stevens Effect," where voters were unwilling to tell pollsters that they had no compunction voting to reelect a convicted felon?
That doesn't appear likely. The problem is that it wasn't just the Stevens race that defied gravity. It seems that the polling was also dramatically wrong about the race for the state's at-large congressional district. And it understated McCain's victory margin almost two-fold. Indeed, in all the national contests, Alaska Republicans picked up roughly 12-14 points more than their polling averages indicated should receive on election day, at the same time that tens of thousands of usually good voters stayed at home, leading to the lowest turnout for a presidential election in Alaskan history.
Silver suspects that this could be a result of Democrats deflated by Obama's certain defeat in the state, yet complacent about the leads that Berkowitz and Begich had racked up. I'm not so sure. More to follow.
That's a dramatic decrease in statewide voter participation, in a year with an extremely close Senate race as well as the appearance of the highly popular governor as a candidate for the Vice-Presidency. Just as confusing is the fact that these voters consistently told pollsters that they intended to swing the other way. So, is this then some sort of "Stevens Effect," where voters were unwilling to tell pollsters that they had no compunction voting to reelect a convicted felon?
That doesn't appear likely. The problem is that it wasn't just the Stevens race that defied gravity. It seems that the polling was also dramatically wrong about the race for the state's at-large congressional district. And it understated McCain's victory margin almost two-fold. Indeed, in all the national contests, Alaska Republicans picked up roughly 12-14 points more than their polling averages indicated should receive on election day, at the same time that tens of thousands of usually good voters stayed at home, leading to the lowest turnout for a presidential election in Alaskan history.
Silver suspects that this could be a result of Democrats deflated by Obama's certain defeat in the state, yet complacent about the leads that Berkowitz and Begich had racked up. I'm not so sure. More to follow.
Night of the Long Knives
With the overwhelming rejection the GOP and McCain saw at the polls Tuesday, it was little surprise today that blood could be seen seeping out beneath the closed doors of the Republican Caucus. House Minority Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) announced that he would not seek another go at the position, enabling his deputy, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) to toss his hat into the ring. The electoral defeat was Blunt's second in as many years and may well reflect the expiration date on his very Rovian brand of intransigence
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) moved quickly this morning to deflect a frontal assault, releasing a letter making clear his intention to retain the post in the eleventy-first Congress. This seems to have staunched the bleeding for the moment, but the Republican base is piping hot and looking for someone (other than Palin) to blame.
In other news of vengeance, today may indeed be the day when the rank duplicity of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) finally, finally comes home to roost. After being summoned this afternoon to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) office, Lieberman left looking grim, telling reporters he was going home to think "about what Senator Reid and I discussed, and what my options are at this point."
Word on the street is that Reid offered the chair of a Senate Sub-Committee, so long as Lieberman relinquish his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. Lieberman, in hot water over his vocal support of John McCain's Presidential Campaign, allegedly refused the offer he wasn't supposed to refuse, threatening to bolt from the Senate Democratic Caucus unless he retained his chairmanship.
For their part, the Republican Caucus has made it known that they would welcome Lieberman with open arms, and with three senate races still up in the air, it's uncertain whether Reid will hold firm or back down. But if history is any indicator, Lieberman has little to worry about.
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) moved quickly this morning to deflect a frontal assault, releasing a letter making clear his intention to retain the post in the eleventy-first Congress. This seems to have staunched the bleeding for the moment, but the Republican base is piping hot and looking for someone (other than Palin) to blame.
In other news of vengeance, today may indeed be the day when the rank duplicity of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) finally, finally comes home to roost. After being summoned this afternoon to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) office, Lieberman left looking grim, telling reporters he was going home to think "about what Senator Reid and I discussed, and what my options are at this point."
Word on the street is that Reid offered the chair of a Senate Sub-Committee, so long as Lieberman relinquish his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. Lieberman, in hot water over his vocal support of John McCain's Presidential Campaign, allegedly refused the offer he wasn't supposed to refuse, threatening to bolt from the Senate Democratic Caucus unless he retained his chairmanship.
For their part, the Republican Caucus has made it known that they would welcome Lieberman with open arms, and with three senate races still up in the air, it's uncertain whether Reid will hold firm or back down. But if history is any indicator, Lieberman has little to worry about.
Final(ish) Score: 364-174
North Carolina has just announced that the unofficial winner of its 15 electoral votes is President-Elect Obama. He has apparently emerged with a slim but firm 13,000 vote lead, and all that remains for the official count is to finish tallying the provisional ballots, a task which is expected only to increase his lead.
This was the last outstanding state, and with this announcement the final Electoral College numbers are Obama - 364 to McCain - 174, the largest landslide by a Democrat in a two-man race since 1964. But Novak says it's still not a mandate. Go figure.
This was the last outstanding state, and with this announcement the final Electoral College numbers are Obama - 364 to McCain - 174, the largest landslide by a Democrat in a two-man race since 1964. But Novak says it's still not a mandate. Go figure.
State of the Senate: Part II - Minnesota
It's now been roughly 36 hours since polls closed in Minnesota, and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is still in the process of fending off a challenge from comedian and talk-show host Al Franken. The final (unofficial) vote tally had Coleman up by an minuscule 467 votes out of a total of more than 2.4 million cast.
This has triggered an automatic statewide recount that is expected to take several days. If Franken wins, the Democrats pick up another seat in their now quixotic attempt to reach 60. If he loses, Coleman goes back to the Senate where he is nearly certain to face an ethics probe (sound at all familiar?) into his receipt of a gift of some $75,000 that failed to make its way onto his Financial Disclosure Forms.
Since his violation is specifically tied to Senate ethics rules, and since his high-profile as a U.S. Senator helps fuel the story, there have been suggestions from certain quarters that Coleman's best legal strategy is to lose the recount and relinquish his seat. His future is now out of his hands, to be determined by optical scanning machines. This race is still a tossup.
This has triggered an automatic statewide recount that is expected to take several days. If Franken wins, the Democrats pick up another seat in their now quixotic attempt to reach 60. If he loses, Coleman goes back to the Senate where he is nearly certain to face an ethics probe (sound at all familiar?) into his receipt of a gift of some $75,000 that failed to make its way onto his Financial Disclosure Forms.
Since his violation is specifically tied to Senate ethics rules, and since his high-profile as a U.S. Senator helps fuel the story, there have been suggestions from certain quarters that Coleman's best legal strategy is to lose the recount and relinquish his seat. His future is now out of his hands, to be determined by optical scanning machines. This race is still a tossup.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
"Wasilla Hillbillies Looting Neiman Marcus"
In their "Special Election Project," Newsweek reports the following:
NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin’s shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain’s top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus.Wow. Guess the only question remaining now is "how deep does the rabbit hole go?"
According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement.
One aide estimated that she spent “tens of thousands” more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as “Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast,” and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.
OR Senate: Merkely Knocks Off Smith
Before I could get to Part II, The Oregonian had to go and call the Oregon Senate race for Democrat Jeff Merkely. Projected results from heavily Democratic Multnomah County seem to indicate that Sen. Gordon Smith will be defeated in his bid for a third term. While Smith is as of yet not conceding, this one looks all but wrapped up. Smith's unseating makes six Senate pickups for the Democrats this cycle, and puts them just three seats away from the likely unattainable filibuster-proof majority.
Taking the Initiative
While the nation was squarely focused last night on Obama's historic victory, several important ballot initiatives were also decided, largely with similar results nationwide. In summary, it was a bad night for fetuses and the GLBT community, and a good night for pot-heads and the terminally ill.
California Prop. 4, which would have required parental notification and a 48 hour waiting period before a minor could obtain an abortion, was defeated in a close vote. South Dakota Initiative 11, which would have eliminated abortion except in the case of danger to a woman's life or health, or in the case of rape or incest, was defeated by a similar margin to a similar initiative two years ago. Colorado voters refused to define life as beginning at the moment of conception, and Michigan's electorate wrote stem cell research into the state constitution.
It was, however, a highly disappointing night for the Gay and Lesbian community. Gay marriage bans passed in Arizona, Florida, and California (where the LDS-funded Prop. 8 was a HUGE controversy). At the same time that they helped usher in one of their own to the White House, blacks in California voted more than two to one to write discrimination against homosexuals into the state constitution.
President-elect Obama's virtually silent opposition didn't seem to sway them much, and in fact there's even talk today that the increase in black turnout precipitated by his candidacy is what pushed the Proposition through. Arkansas also banned adoption by unmarried couples, to be read as gay couples. For all the breathless headlines, tolerance and equality under the law had only a so-so night.
Marijuana advocates, however, were not disappointed by the night's results. The compassionate use Proposition 1 in Michigan was approved by a better than 3:2 margin, and 7 in 10 Massachussettes voters elected to decriminalize possession of less than one ounce of Marijuana, levying a $100 civil fine per offense. While such advances made little headway during the Bush years, when the "states rights" President routinely ordered raids on legally sanctioned dispensaries in states with Compassionate Use laws, it is much less clear that a President Obama would stand in the way of such measures. Finally, Washington became the second state after Oregon to legislate the right to terminate one's life in the face of terrible illness, by a fairly sizable margin.
So, it appears the culture wars, while not as central to the American political dialogue as they once were, are indeed alive and well, as well as fundamentally unchanged. The nation is still largely pro-choice and still somewhat anti-gay, but can get together around around a joint in their buddy's basement. God Bless America.
California Prop. 4, which would have required parental notification and a 48 hour waiting period before a minor could obtain an abortion, was defeated in a close vote. South Dakota Initiative 11, which would have eliminated abortion except in the case of danger to a woman's life or health, or in the case of rape or incest, was defeated by a similar margin to a similar initiative two years ago. Colorado voters refused to define life as beginning at the moment of conception, and Michigan's electorate wrote stem cell research into the state constitution.
It was, however, a highly disappointing night for the Gay and Lesbian community. Gay marriage bans passed in Arizona, Florida, and California (where the LDS-funded Prop. 8 was a HUGE controversy). At the same time that they helped usher in one of their own to the White House, blacks in California voted more than two to one to write discrimination against homosexuals into the state constitution.
President-elect Obama's virtually silent opposition didn't seem to sway them much, and in fact there's even talk today that the increase in black turnout precipitated by his candidacy is what pushed the Proposition through. Arkansas also banned adoption by unmarried couples, to be read as gay couples. For all the breathless headlines, tolerance and equality under the law had only a so-so night.
Marijuana advocates, however, were not disappointed by the night's results. The compassionate use Proposition 1 in Michigan was approved by a better than 3:2 margin, and 7 in 10 Massachussettes voters elected to decriminalize possession of less than one ounce of Marijuana, levying a $100 civil fine per offense. While such advances made little headway during the Bush years, when the "states rights" President routinely ordered raids on legally sanctioned dispensaries in states with Compassionate Use laws, it is much less clear that a President Obama would stand in the way of such measures. Finally, Washington became the second state after Oregon to legislate the right to terminate one's life in the face of terrible illness, by a fairly sizable margin.
So, it appears the culture wars, while not as central to the American political dialogue as they once were, are indeed alive and well, as well as fundamentally unchanged. The nation is still largely pro-choice and still somewhat anti-gay, but can get together around around a joint in their buddy's basement. God Bless America.
State of the Senate: Part I
Here is the current state of the Democratic quest to 60 seats in the Senate, Part I:
Alaska - The race between convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) appears to be over, and it appears that the pro-crime vote was the key in Sen. Stevens reelection victory. The surge in crime-friendly voters also helped soon-to-be-indicted Rep. Don Young (R-AK) overcome challenger Ethan Berkowitz in the contest for the state's only congressional seat.
What's the upshot? Stevens faces certain censure and expulsion from the Senate, which will result in the appointment of a temporary replacement by Gov. Sarah Palin (who rumor has it is eyeing herself for the position). A special election will be called no later than 90 days after Sen. Stevens leaves office, and the appointee will likely face defeated challenger Begich. It should be noted that the Senate may choose not to pursue expulsion until Stevens has exhausted his appeals, a process that could take years. But his presence is contagion in an already toxic environment, and the pressure from members of his own party to step down is liable to be intense.
Between Palin's fame and popularity, backlash against the Obama victory, and the naturally conservative composition of the Alaska electorate, she should walk away with the hypothetical contest. In a political environment where a felon can be reelected just days after his conviction, this one has to marked as lean Republican.
Georgia - After what looked like a slim reelection victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) evaporated overnight, the incumbent is left this evening with a total of 1,841,454 votes, amounting to 49.83% of the popular vote. If this margin holds, it will trigger a run-off election between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. In an environment where the Democratic base is feeling enthusiastic and empowered, and where thousands of Democratic campaign operatives are restless and suddenly unemployed, Chambliss may be in for the fight of his life.
The run-off, hypothetically scheduled for December 2, may be the final battleground of Decision '08. Nate Silver has already reported on the impending influx of operatives into the Peach State, and with emotions and excitement at fever pitch, this may prove to be a most lucrative outlet. Tough electoral math combined with relentless determination makes this race a true toss-up.
Next up: Minnesota and Oregon...
Alaska - The race between convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) appears to be over, and it appears that the pro-crime vote was the key in Sen. Stevens reelection victory. The surge in crime-friendly voters also helped soon-to-be-indicted Rep. Don Young (R-AK) overcome challenger Ethan Berkowitz in the contest for the state's only congressional seat.
What's the upshot? Stevens faces certain censure and expulsion from the Senate, which will result in the appointment of a temporary replacement by Gov. Sarah Palin (who rumor has it is eyeing herself for the position). A special election will be called no later than 90 days after Sen. Stevens leaves office, and the appointee will likely face defeated challenger Begich. It should be noted that the Senate may choose not to pursue expulsion until Stevens has exhausted his appeals, a process that could take years. But his presence is contagion in an already toxic environment, and the pressure from members of his own party to step down is liable to be intense.
Between Palin's fame and popularity, backlash against the Obama victory, and the naturally conservative composition of the Alaska electorate, she should walk away with the hypothetical contest. In a political environment where a felon can be reelected just days after his conviction, this one has to marked as lean Republican.
Georgia - After what looked like a slim reelection victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) evaporated overnight, the incumbent is left this evening with a total of 1,841,454 votes, amounting to 49.83% of the popular vote. If this margin holds, it will trigger a run-off election between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. In an environment where the Democratic base is feeling enthusiastic and empowered, and where thousands of Democratic campaign operatives are restless and suddenly unemployed, Chambliss may be in for the fight of his life.
The run-off, hypothetically scheduled for December 2, may be the final battleground of Decision '08. Nate Silver has already reported on the impending influx of operatives into the Peach State, and with emotions and excitement at fever pitch, this may prove to be a most lucrative outlet. Tough electoral math combined with relentless determination makes this race a true toss-up.
Next up: Minnesota and Oregon...
Pitbull: Hold the Lipstick
While it's not news yet (a botched denial out of his office is likely the first in a series of transition screw-ups), Congressman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) appears to have accepted President-Elect Obama's offer to become his White House Chief of Staff. The young Illinois legislator has a reputation as a ruthless enforcer, and would likely end up playing the bad cop to President Obama's post-partisan approach. The congressman was the model for West Wing Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Lyman, and if the real man bears any resemblance to the likeness he inspired, we could be in for a rough-and-tumble few years.
Emanuel's selection is a reflex of the pragmatic Obama, much like his rejection of public funds during the campaign, and cuts somewhat against the grain of his bipartisan rhetoric. To choose a full-contact operative like Emanuel to be the primary manager of his administration is maybe a little more aggressive than I would have liked, and may signal that the progenitor of the most cohesive electoral juggernaut in American history isn't done playing hardball.
There are hints of softer, more hope-driven picks coming down the road: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been floated as a potential Environmental Protection Agency head, and there's even the somewhat strange sounding idea of having Gen. Colin Powell serve as Secretary of Education.
While shuffling a member of the Bush Administration from one cabinet post to another hardly seems to qualify as "change we can believe in," the appearance of bipartisanship and the widespread popularity of the former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs may be enough to insulate Obama from charges of hypocrisy. Time will tell; less than twenty-four hours after the race was called, the electricity in the air has yet to discharge, and much of what we hear today is probably rumor and apocrypha, which is of course to bloggers what nouns and verbs are to writers. Good to be back.
Emanuel's selection is a reflex of the pragmatic Obama, much like his rejection of public funds during the campaign, and cuts somewhat against the grain of his bipartisan rhetoric. To choose a full-contact operative like Emanuel to be the primary manager of his administration is maybe a little more aggressive than I would have liked, and may signal that the progenitor of the most cohesive electoral juggernaut in American history isn't done playing hardball.
There are hints of softer, more hope-driven picks coming down the road: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been floated as a potential Environmental Protection Agency head, and there's even the somewhat strange sounding idea of having Gen. Colin Powell serve as Secretary of Education.
While shuffling a member of the Bush Administration from one cabinet post to another hardly seems to qualify as "change we can believe in," the appearance of bipartisanship and the widespread popularity of the former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs may be enough to insulate Obama from charges of hypocrisy. Time will tell; less than twenty-four hours after the race was called, the electricity in the air has yet to discharge, and much of what we hear today is probably rumor and apocrypha, which is of course to bloggers what nouns and verbs are to writers. Good to be back.
The Phoenix
Now that the election chaos is officially over, I intend to start the blog machine back up. I didn't initially quit because the prospect of covering polling averages day after day was tiresome, but I admit a certain pleasure having avoided it. I originally stopped when I began pursuing a paid position with the Obama campaign, partially out of a sense of journalistic neutrality (as though I ever possessed that) and partly because that process required a substantial portion of my attention.
I remained inactive for a variety of reasons, none of which I am going to go into detail about. It's not that interesting, and I want to get back to the political world. I apologize to any readers who were left in the jarring silence, and I apologize for not explaining my absence over the last several months. If many of you are hesitant to trust the permanence of this site, I hardly blame you.
I really like to think of this blog as more starting anew than it is a continuation of the old; a new blog for a new administration and perhaps a new era. I have high hopes for the next few years, and for the first time since I took an interest in politics, I think I am going to be happy to write about it. See you on the field.
I remained inactive for a variety of reasons, none of which I am going to go into detail about. It's not that interesting, and I want to get back to the political world. I apologize to any readers who were left in the jarring silence, and I apologize for not explaining my absence over the last several months. If many of you are hesitant to trust the permanence of this site, I hardly blame you.
I really like to think of this blog as more starting anew than it is a continuation of the old; a new blog for a new administration and perhaps a new era. I have high hopes for the next few years, and for the first time since I took an interest in politics, I think I am going to be happy to write about it. See you on the field.
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