Sunday Night Thought Dump

I've been out of the loop now for three full days, but was able to borrow hijack a friends laptop to craft sort of a "stream-of-consciousness thought dump" post regarding the many events I have not yet spoken of. So starting chronologically, here we go.

Bill Clinton's speech was energetic, positive, and brilliant. Though Hillary appeared at all times to be highly supportive of the candidate, her failure to specifically declare Obama ready to govern did not escape the notice of the media. In contrast, President Clinton's address the next night not only contained that very phrase, it had him repeating it several times loudly for emphasis. As expected, he strayed off the topic of defense a little, but by the end of his eloquent and powerful endorsement, he had tagged all the bases anyone could have asked for.

The roll-call vote was also expertly played, with the theatrics engineered by the Obama campaign capping a long, dramatic run-up in the press. Between the two Clinton speeches and the nomination by acclimation during the roll-call, the Democrats did a very good job of looking like they had achieved a consensus around Obama, when really the truth is that it was always more of a union against McCain.

Obama's speech the next night was well-written and well-received. My initial impression was that it wasn't his best oratory, but it was the first exposure for many of the nearly forty-million people who saw his speech live, and it was still leagues above what normally passes for rhetoric in politics. It was detailed, urgent, insightful, and inspired. All in all, the convention appears to have succeeded in all of its goals; the Democrats emerged strong, united, focused, and energized.

This energy was dispersed almost immediately by the shock selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as the Vice-Presidential nominee for the Republican Party. The media immediately declared it a brilliant pick, one that revitalized McCain and energized the party base. The McCain campaign ended up raising seven million dollars in one day off the announcement. So is this a game-changer?

I'm skeptical. While there is talk that this pick reinforces McCain's "maverick" credentials, I just don't see it. John McCain sides with Dubya 90% of the time, and the one-in-ten times he doesn't, Palin sides with the President. This is supposed to be the GOP tonic for the change bug? Sure, she brings in more of the Bush voters and Bush donors than McCain would alone, but that alone doesn't change the game. Those voters probably would have come home by November anyway.

The Republicans are wagering that women jilted by the Obama victory will be willing to turn their back on the Democratic Party and vote for a woman who opposes abortion, opposes birth control, opposes equal pay for equal work, opposes universal health care, and opposes the Equal Rights Amendment. The reason they suspect this will work, the reason the took on Palin, is that they really do believe women to be stupid enough to ignore all other considerations other than anatomy. I'm pretty sure they're wrong.

What Obama needs to do now is pony up the rest of the cash to retire Clinton's debt. The reason he needs to do this is that he needs Clinton out there smacking Palin around. Palin has no business at all calling herself a feminist, and it won't take much prodding from Clinton for most women to see that. While I don't expect Palin to draw all that many women in the fall, a constant and vocal stream of criticism from Clinton would likely take all the punch out of McCain's pick.

The real test (excepting November, of course) will be the polling over the course of the next week or so. It is pretty clear that the Tuesday tracking polls will show a blunted bounce from the Democratic Convention, but if McCain is up by 4 before the convention ends, it could be that the media narrative is taking hold. If Obama can maintain a lead throughout the first few days of the convention, it's likely the muted event will fail to put McCain into the lead. The summer is heading into the fall, and the campaign is just now cranking up to pace. UPS says I'll have my computer cable on Thursday, so look for an update then if not sooner. Ok.