The Exit Polls: Shifting Electorate?

Now that it's been a few days, some of the larger news organizations are releasing the detailed cross-tabs for their exit polling operations, giving us a clearer idea of the makeup of the coalition that made the son of a Kenyan goatherd leader of the free world. Not surprisingly, the differences between the 2004 and 2008 numbers are dramatic, signalling a shift that could be construed as either reactive or tectonic.

Whereas John Kerry lost men and won women by a meager three points, Obama eked out a 1% margin among men and more than quadrupled Kerry's margin with women. Kerry lost voters 30 and older, while Obama won voters aged 18-59, only narrowly losing those sixty and older. Obama's performance with whites matched that of Bill Clinton's reelection run in 1996, which itself was the highest showing by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The only demographic where the Democrats lost ground from 2004 was in small towns, where Obama underperformed Kerry by barely 4%.

Some of the gains were dramatic. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in cities both big and small by ten points, increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, and led an astounding (if not quite shocking) 2-1 blowout among first time voters, besting Kerry to the tune of 16 points. If it turns out that these gains were largely the result of a referendum on Bush and the GOP in general, then it is entirely possible that Obama will be in for a real fight for reelection. But if even some of these gains are in any way durable, the GOP is staring down the long barrel of a very loaded gun.