State of the Senate: Part I

Here is the current state of the Democratic quest to 60 seats in the Senate, Part I:

Alaska - The race between convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) appears to be over, and it appears that the pro-crime vote was the key in Sen. Stevens reelection victory. The surge in crime-friendly voters also helped soon-to-be-indicted Rep. Don Young (R-AK) overcome challenger Ethan Berkowitz in the contest for the state's only congressional seat.

What's the upshot? Stevens faces certain censure and expulsion from the Senate, which will result in the appointment of a temporary replacement by Gov. Sarah Palin (who rumor has it is eyeing herself for the position). A special election will be called no later than 90 days after Sen. Stevens leaves office, and the appointee will likely face defeated challenger Begich. It should be noted that the Senate may choose not to pursue expulsion until Stevens has exhausted his appeals, a process that could take years. But his presence is contagion in an already toxic environment, and the pressure from members of his own party to step down is liable to be intense.

Between Palin's fame and popularity, backlash against the Obama victory, and the naturally conservative composition of the Alaska electorate, she should walk away with the hypothetical contest. In a political environment where a felon can be reelected just days after his conviction, this one has to marked as lean Republican.

Georgia - After what looked like a slim reelection victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) evaporated overnight, the incumbent is left this evening with a total of 1,841,454 votes, amounting to 49.83% of the popular vote. If this margin holds, it will trigger a run-off election between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. In an environment where the Democratic base is feeling enthusiastic and empowered, and where thousands of Democratic campaign operatives are restless and suddenly unemployed, Chambliss may be in for the fight of his life.

The run-off, hypothetically scheduled for December 2, may be the final battleground of Decision '08. Nate Silver has already reported on the impending influx of operatives into the Peach State, and with emotions and excitement at fever pitch, this may prove to be a most lucrative outlet. Tough electoral math combined with relentless determination makes this race a true toss-up.

Next up: Minnesota and Oregon...