On The Georgian Conflict

Politico has an excellent article up about the dichotomy between the statements released by the Obama and McCain campaigns regarding the Georgian Conflict. Obama has responded by condemning the violence and counseling talks, in much the same way as NATO, the EU, and even the White House reacted. McCain, on the other hand, has struck a much more aggressive position, aligning America's interests with those of Georgia in a diplomatic counter-weight to an emergent imperial Russia.

When taken in context with Mr. McCain's previously stated desire to remove Russia from the G-8, this indicates a willingness and perhaps even eagerness to resume the kind of adversarial relationship we maintained with the USSR in previous decades. While it is easy and tempting to argue the moral hazard of appeasement, it seems unwise in our current strategic environment to invite this particular fight.

For starters, it's not entirely clear that Russia is solely responsible for the outbreak of violence. There has been aggressive maneuvering on both sides for weeks, and the Russian invasion of Georgia only began after an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council failed to resolve the Georgian military incursion into South Ossetia. Another meeting earlier today again failed to produce a cease-fire agreement, and it appears that Georgia is withdrawing its contingent of troops from Iraq to deal with the crisis at home.

But even assuming the unimpeachable moral righteousness of the Georgian position, it makes little strategic sense to align ourselves against the Russians. Our military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan have spread us too thin to effectively counter Russian aggression, and we need Russian cooperation to reach agreements on sanctions against Iran, and to help counterbalance an emerging China. Striking a pose diametrically opposed to the Russians, especially when we currently lack the leverage to back it up, will only further weaken us at this juncture.

McCain's tough approach to diplomatic relations lacks the nuance that the multi-polar 21st century world requires. Should he be elected the next president, there is little reason to believe that his foreign policy instincts would stray that far from the current administration's.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign has issued a statement more pointedly condemning Russia and laying the primary blame for the conflict on them. While still not as fierce as McCain, Obama's new position is visibly more hawkish than his earlier one, suggesting he's worried about getting out-tough-guyed on this issue.