The VP Lotto: Kathleen Sebelius

Today on The VP Lotto, we examine the dark horse candidacy of Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. She has been widely mentioned as a contender for the number two spot, owing to both her popularity in an unabashedly red state and early support of Obama's presidential campaign. Despite a lack of foreign policy and defense experience that is pretty much her only substantive weakness, Sebelius brings to the table the strongest "Change" credentials of any of the contenders, and an affable competence that has made her one of the most popular governors in America.

Sebelius had a peripatetic youth similar to Obama's, but with more strategic locales. She was born in Ohio, the daughter of a John Gilligan, who would be elected governor of that state in 1970. She had a childhood home in Michigan, and currently maintains a vacation house north of Traverse City. She later moved to Kansas and changed politics there dramatically.

Gov. Sebelius was first elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1986, leaving in 1994 to contest and win a race for state insurance commissioner, the first Democrat elected to that position in a hundred years. She achieved this distinction while at the same time refusing campaign contributions from the insurance industry, and later blocked a proposed merger of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas with an Indiana firm, the first time the corporation had ever been repelled.

She ran for Governor in 2002, defeating Republican Tim Shallenburger by eight-points, and won re-election by a landslide seventeen-point margin four years later, all in a state where only 27% of voters are registered as Democrats. This is made possible by her wide demographic support, including the approval of 49% of Republicans, 44% of conservatives, and a whopping 78% of moderates. This wide support has not been won by weak leadership on progressive issues.

In 2006, Sebelius fought for and won an additional $500 million for the funding of Kansas public schools (out of a total budget outlay of only $12 billion), while at the same time eliminating a $1.1 billion budget deficit she inherited from her predecessor. She achieved this victory against an opposition legislature and without a tax increase. She is a stalwart defender of abortion rights, the only one on the shortlist, and vetoed legislation to restrict abortions in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008. She is also, however, personally pro-life, and during her tenure as governor has instituted policies which reduced abortions by 12.6%.

Sebelius made it clear early on that environmental concerns were at the top of her list of priorities, and has vetoed bills authorizing the construction of coal-fired power plants on three separate occasions. She has repeatedly opposed conceal-and-carry laws and attempts to alter the Kansas State Constitution to ban gay marriage. She is also an opponent of capital punishment. In short, she retains progressive values and positions while still attracting voters who are largely ambivalent about Democrats.

A major strike against Sebelius, however is she does nothing to deflect criticisms of Obama as too inexperienced on security and foreign policy issues. She will also almost certainly be unable to deliver her state on November 4, and women voters swept up into the personality cult of Hillary might be resistant to a female nominee who is not their girl, though as far as I can tell there has been no opinion polling done on this subject (though you can be sure Obama is testing this).

In conclusion, Sebelius presents a compelling case to be nominated to the ticket. Her progressive credentials highlight the "change" message the Democrats are trying to run on this year, and her popularity among moderates and conservatives mirrors that of her potential running mate. She is a risky pick, no doubt, but one that I suspect could pay enormous dividends in the fall.