The VP Lotto: Tim Kaine

It's time for round two of VP Lotto, and this time Virgina Governor Tim Kaine is up for review. His name has been ranked very high on the shortlist, presumably because of his early and enthusiastic support of Senator Obama, and the strategic benefits of putting a southern swing-state governor on the ticket. While there are many upsides to his potential candidacy, he presents by far the weakest resume of the four finalists.

On the positive side, Gov. Kaine is a deeply religious Catholic, a member of the Society of Jesus (the Jesuits), and a former missionary to Honduras. He is fluent in Spanish, which could theoretically help increase Sen. Obama's share of the Latino vote. Probably the biggest prize he brings to the ticket, however, is his blend of demographic support. While his support is above fifty percent in nearly every demographic, he boasts even broader support among voters over sixty-five (63%) and moderates (67%), two groups whose support has eluded Obama. He has won the approval of both whites and Hispanics (58% and 55% respectively) and even draws a 42% approval rating from self-identified conservatives. In short, he is widely admired among key demographics that Obama must carry if he is to win the White House.

On the other hand, most of the advantages he brings to the table could easily be turned against him. His defining Catholic faith is only an advantage among the 0.002% of people for whom a biblical world-view is a prerequisite for support, but who don't require that world-view to be also protestant and fundamentalist. His fluency in Spanish and closeness to the Latino community may hurt the cause as much as it could help it (Obama already leads comfortably among Hispanics), and his early loyalty to Obama may inflame Clinton supporters looking for one of their own on the ticket.

Additionally, an Obama/Kaine ticket would be among the youngest and most inexperienced in the history of the union. As recently as two years ago, Kaine was no more than the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, having served before that as Richmond Mayor and City Council member. Obama and Kaine have between the two of them just two years of executive experience and four years on the national scene. If McCain manages to turn the tide on the Change vs. Experience sentiment, an Obama/Kaine ticket could be in serious trouble.

Finally, it is not at all difficult to use Gov. Kaine's principled and nuanced positions against him. He supports mandatory vaccination against HPV for girls as young as eleven, closing loopholes in gun laws, and has lobbied for several tax increases during his gubernatorial term. He is on the record as personally opposing the death penalty (though he has overseen several executions as governor), and has fought against a constitutional ban on gay marriage. Finally, he supports more stringent regulation of abortions, something else that is likely to set Hillary supporters on fire. All of this might make him a much greater drag on the ticket than the thirteen electoral votes he might be able to deliver.

In conclusion, while Gov. Kaine possesses some of the attributes that might one day make him a desirable vice-presidential or even presidential candidate, his lack of experience and positions on the issues makes him a poor match for this nominee. Shortlisted or not, I don't think this is going to end up being Kaine's year. At least I hope not.